Once Price broke .7500 my stop loss was places above the previous bar Low. The 30 to 40 pip stop loss that I use is not a hard and fast rule, it always depends on the quality and strength of the setup. (I catagorized this Daily Aud/Usd BEOB as very high.) And placing stop losses at common sense S/R levels within the PA setup itself. I believed that the previous bar Low (.7560) had a confluence of strentgh (150ema, 61.8 fib) and adjusted my position size according (65pips).
Price drew down about -40 pips and then went positive about +35 pips, after the break. I grabbed 18 pips on the 1st half and out on the 2nd half at break even.
Does this setup still have great potential to play out successfully? Absolutely. Placing a stop loss above this BEOB would be the correct placement. This is a high quailty PA setup imo and the true potential of this setup is far from over.
Are you looking to re-enter the setup at a retrace since it already broke?
Yes. If the 4 hour/Daily presents a clear high quality PA bearish setup I will re-enter.
Jim
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I have a question generally about expected ROI per year. If we pick good setups and trade well we are looking at say 20%-60% a year? using 1% per trade and being picky? I have been here long enough to know the 100% roi a month etc are unsustainable, however I have seen respected traders on FF quoting 300%-500% a year. So what do you guy think is reasonable?
Bundy nails it for me right there . . . . . "Just be a good disciplined trader. That's all. Your ROI will improve over time as a side affect."
I have the same view towards Risk/Reward, managing risk, etc. It's amazing how waiting for the right setup, no matter how long it takes, can do for your overall statistics.
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jarroo
excited to see your comment on this setup. initially I went short at the break of low with 1/10 of my position to test, and in. then, I built confidence to put the rest at the 50% ret of the BEOB, that is 0.7600. now, I am in for the entire position. I did that coz I to be honest didn't have the judgement to the quality of this setup, totally a blind play. however, after seeing your below comment, I am more confident that there probably will be a good run to come in one day or so.
edit. stoploss always at the top of the setup for both...
I do see the Aud/Usd Daily BEOB as a high quailty PA setup krue. I'm sure you see why I like the setup with its location and supporting confluences, correct?
Interesting how you scaled into the trade. I like it . . how it minimizes your risk.
Confidence building in this method is very important. Just ask bakkos85 about his Nzd/Usd trade.
Sure, we pour over thousands of successful charts and failed charts.
But when we actually do the trade, make the entries, place the stops and see it unfold (or not) is when the real learning and experience begins. This is why we practise, this is why we demo.
No matter what the outcome of this trade may be, krue, you will gain so many different levels of experience from it that you may not realize it now. But you will.
Jim
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this is a h&s, a classical h&s, so long as the head is higher than either of the shoulders for a top formation, and the price action breakout the neckline. but, don't trust what i am saying here too, take a book to study by yourself. then, you know which version is correct
Yeah krue. How's that BEOB Aud/Usd trade coming along? With your entries, it should be looking pretty good.
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This day bar is quite large in comparison to its neighbors was wanting to short but going to wait till asian session and reavaluate b4 doing something rash. Patience
This could close as a BUllish Outside Bar. We like these at swing Lows and other confluences to support a long trade. There is some fib levels that look to be offering additional support.
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hence the short on gu..... short term for the breather..
Looks like it, jeff. The break of the BUOB Usd/Jpy is a good example of what is not suppose to happen when it breaks. I got out with -21 pip loss, small position. The hard break should be strong and steady or like a rocket.
I will look for a retrace back to the entry point or the high of the BUOB (in this case). Once the retrace to break didn't hold up, I usually will take a smaller loss of 10 to 15 pips.
Most of the time the breaks will give up a nice amount of pips, depending on the quality of the setup, which I catagorized this one to be.
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i do have a small position playing the uj pa as a pure setup. it is in drawdown but with what happened today in india I think this is one of those things that will continue to move the market in todays direction.
democracy beating communism can move things, even artificialy for a while.
i'll be watching asia overnight....
5250 on gu is what i'm looking at
I agree. The 95.60-50 level looks like a good support level.
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IMO you should not be trading like this,and the only thing that interests me today were the USDJPY BUOB, which turns out breaking weak therefore not a good setup IMO.
Quote:
Originally Posted by markmm
I agree with you, I am only looking at pin bars from now on, good 1,2,3 day pin bars at swing high low for A+ setups. I will then look at other good looking pin bars not at optimal locations but look to move stop to BE quickly. I think outside bars work, but as you say they need to be at the swing high low, not a few bars after. I took a loss on this one also and wiped out my profits from last trade and more (using small account size though, demo for me). Learning costs, we should be glad we are here only losing a few % than using some crazy system...
Good stuff guys. You both are on the right path.
Isn't it crazy. We get a BEOB on the Auzzie that's at a swing high. (I agreee with you marc, the best ones look like this 4 hour Nzd/Jpy from last week), and It gives up a tough 30 or so pips. Then we have a BUOB on G/U, G/J, etc, that's not in the ideal location (which is at swing low) and it breaks hard for 100+ pips.
But this how we do it. We look for the best PA setup that give the highest probability of success. They have to meet our strict criteria because when they do we know that the odds are in our favor.
You have to get use to seeing some PA setups go to the moon without you its all part of the learning experience. It's still tough for me to see. lol
Jim
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I also took a 2% hit on this trade. IMO the setup was good but not all setups will go in our favour...we have to learn to live with losses and move on to the next trade.
One thing I am trying to get right is mananging the trade once in it. On reflection it may have been prudent to limit the loss by moving the sl to above the bar that closed below the 9500 level...this still would have resulted in a loss but by about 100pips less aprox.
It is no easier to actively manage a trade when in a profit or drawdown.
Possible pin forming at swing high...
Another good location for a stop loss is above/below the high or low of the bar that actually broke the trigger or the break.
Examples:
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Yeah, Nial Fuller's videos are certainly worth watching. I get them via email ( free subscription from his website). Pinbars and false breaks (fakeys) are his two favorite setups.
Steve.
Btw, anyone else having FF problems this week?
Man, this guy stole all of Jim's material even the same language.
Yeah, I have had problems logging in.
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Even if trading daily and weekly charts an Exit Strategy is needed. I am not a new trader. I have read some of this thread, obviously not all of it.
I have various strategies for trading based on Price Action. Most of the exit strategies I use are based on round numbers and Support Resistance Regions, also use bar high/lows as exits.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Musashi
PPZ = ??
I guess I assumed that you knew how PPZ levels were defined. They are areas where support and resistence levels meet.
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I'm not familiar with the Acronym PPZ that's all. Support Resistance on Higher Time Frames are more powerful, I'm curious as to know Exit Strategies that different people employ when trading the Pin Bar.
As you are fully aware exits are where you get paid. Not on the entries.
Trade management is the most difficult skill to master because price can and does do anything.
I'm getting to your intial question of "where do I exit?" If your not interested in it, I will move on.
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These are my Daily and Weekly PPZ levels on the Euro. (There are more but these are the most relevant to current Price.)
If I do venture down to the 4 hour time frame on any pair it is crucial that I know where these Daily/Weekly PPZ levels are located.
Next . . .
These higher time frame PPZ levels are very important Musashi, if you decide to trade on the lower time frames. Many people get into trouble on these lower time frames because they don't know where they are.
On the Daily, I will then look for obvious support and resistence level or minor PPZs where Price ran into some trouble. I consider strong PPZs show themselves on both the Daily and Weekly charts.
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These higher time frame PPZ levels are very important Musashi, if you decide to trade on the lower time frames. Many people get into trouble on these lower time frames because they don't know where that are.
On the Daily, I will then look for obvious support and resistence level or minor PPZs where Price ran into some trouble. I consider strong PPZs show themselves on both the Daily and weekly charts.
Now let's move down to the 4 hour chart and take a look at the PB. All of this setup work could have been done before the 4 hour PB presented itself, correct? Yes.
I would have liked that PB at the red check mark, that would have been a better setup. I like the 1.3567 level for an exit.
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Not all the time. It can be a exit level. Previous bar Lows/ Highs are also a good target. It depends on the quality of the setup. In this case, the 4 hour PB, due to its location and supporting confluences, I would not put it in a high quality status.
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Here's a trade that I went Long with. My reasons for taking this trade are as follows:
1) BUOB at Swing Low (could also be a 2-day pin bar as well)
2) Price got rejected at PPZ, which also happens to be round number @55
3) It's also with the trend
4) The BUOB break is above the Daily PPZ at 57
My TP is set at the next PPZ at 60.
I welcome all comments on my thought process.
Now that's what a call a very nice 1st post ijay. Well done.
Looks like the 1st target was already been hit.
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Thanks. Although this is my 2nd post, I've been around at both this thread as well as PF for quite a while, absorbing and digesting all the good stuff. And yes, you're one of those whose comments I pay particular attention to.
As per J16 material here, my stop is set at the low of the BUOB bar. The trade is still active.
I believe this pair still has trend support, so I will give it some room to run a bit for now.
Your welcome ijay. It always a necessity to have as many supporting confluence with evey PA setup. A good location being a given.
I would have taken a lot off the table and moved my stops at least to under the 57.00, but that's just me.
Nice trade.
Jim
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I think I might just have had my first aha moment so I thought I'd share it on here in case it helps other rookies like myself.
A bit of history:
Like many people, I came to forex expecting to make easy money daily. I had purchased some software that threw out indicators and all I had to do was watch the money grow.
You can guess what happened. The software threw out as many bad indicators as good and I soon ended up with a loss. Luckily, the software came with a 30 day money back guarantee so I returned it and got my money back. Undaunted,...
There are many more "Ahha" moments to come. This is a big one.
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Yeah Bunny I am seeing it clearly now, PA is nothing without location. I see major locations as the following-
Weekly horizontal S/R (PPZ or highs/lows).
Big round number 1.5000, 1.6000, 100.00 , 120.00
50,61.8,76.4 Fib line from a large move on same TF as I am trading.
365/150 EMA.
If there are more than one at the same location the probability goes up.
As you say the beauty is I look for PA at these strong points (not just PB but all the PA bars) and I can set alerts. I also think it will be easier to move down a TF (4HR) using this method...
Looks like your having an "AhhA" moment yourself, Mark.
I've had this green box at the 150.00 waiting and watching Price Action around it. Fine tuning your PPZ levels and waiting for Price is worth the wait. Just ask Mike and bundy. (1st chart, sorry a little messy)
(hey, nice post bundy.)
Yes you are correct, the 4 hour time frame presents better setups when these higher level PPZs are located. I don't know how to trade lower time frames without them.
Although I see people try. (2nd chart)
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I kinda already knew this or had read it a lot but it hadn't clicked properly, if you can stay in this game minimum 6 months learning as much as you can you begin to get the moments of clarity.
Well said. . "moments of clairty". For me, they have been almost a religious epiphany. lol.
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Please can anyone see an obvious reason that this pinbar failed yesterday?
cheers.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
hey k
If you look to the left of the bar price is very choppy and this pin is not in space. So when we have this especially on the hour timeframe we have traffic. Now the even bigger reason to not take this trade was the major holiday in the US. This is a good time not to trade as most of the action wont be there.
The hour time frame requires more patience and practice from higher time frames.
And the following from the Big Guy;
James16:
THIS IS CRITICAL.
WE MUST LEARN TO:
Notice a strong s/r area just beyond our pa if it exists.
Know that if we trade into it we had better be prepared for a quick reversal that could give us a loss if we are not prepared.
if we know its there, we have several choices.
1. get out when it gets there for a small profit.
2. take a small partial profit and move the remainder to BE.
3. stay in with your total position hoping for a break and move your stop to BE.
4. Dont enter until the level has been broken.
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If you starting trading the daily timeframe you will not need anything more then a 15-20 mins a day to scan your charts. It really takes me maybe 3-5 minutes to scan my daily charts. Reading price action slowly becomes like reading another language. At first you can read a few words, then you can form a few sentences, but it takes awhile to be able to write your own story. Jarroo better like that metaphor or I quit
Mike
I like this analogy the best, Mike. The charts are talking to us, that's for sure. But what are they saying? Once we understand the language of Price movement the more fluent we become.
Jim
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Thanks jarroo,
I did not see it as a strong s/r. Perhaps, not experienced enough myself.
Understandable, kk. That's why the " . . . if we know its there .." is underlined. This does take time to learn and practise. Keep at it and you'll get there.
Jim
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Hey Jaroo, i guess jim isnt around. I dont know who the senior members in charge are, I want to make my first james16 chart post. I have been watching this Pin bar since yesterday. Lots of good confluence. Can that be called a pin bar.
If i were trading purely J16 i would have taken the Retrace of the pinbar today. But then i am using the J16 method to fintune my system. Auslancos entry on the 4hr chart. What do you think?
Do you always wait for a pinochio setup with both eyes or you can enter on the nextbar after the pin, Thanks
Right...
Hey ephisi, I remember you from the Auslanco thread.
Thoses would not be defined as Pin Bars. They are more like neutral, indecsion bars. We want are PBs to have a long nose, off of High/Lows and/or PPZ levels (S/R).
Sorry I can't posts charts, but check out these James16 charts (and all of his charts) for good examples of PBs.
Watch this. 2 inside bars. Breaks to form a BEOB. Next bar retraces to 78.6 fib ret of outside bar. Looks like james 16 PA. Right?
This is more correct ephisi. We have BEOB at a swing high, below a strong round number, 150.00. But we have to remember why these small bars (inside bars) were formed. It was due the holiday, which is like a Sunday bar, so we ignore them.
But you are getting the jest of it. It looks like it already hit its target.
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ephisi,
I can definitely understand why u deem 151.49 as a swing high. but here in this thread, swing highs & lows are only called swing highs & lowsif the price is distinctly apart from other bars/candles, that is, the bar/candle is distinctly above/on top of or below/at the bottom of several other bars/candles. To simplify, again the best example of a swing is the swing low g/j PB on apr25+ on your post above (in this case, it's a swing low).
the 151.49 high on the 4hr chart [color=red][u]is inside a 149.50...
Very good point sChaos . . . and definition.
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Nice one supreme. im a J16 toddler. I noticed when i combine such PA at confluences with my 4hr system its very efficient. I have taken the bar as a neutral pin. If todays candle closes anywhere around or below dis levels it will make my bearish bias stronger.so im waitng for daily close to confirm.
Btw i am amazed and wonder how u guys are able to search for PA on so many different pairs. When in essence you are trying to get jsut a few nice trades monthly.
jaroo, supreme. How do you manage dis? ie not overtrading.
It's easier to do when your only trading the Weekly and Daily time frames. Have your key round numbers, fib levels and PPZ levels noted on your charts then just wait for the close of the day (and/or week) and wait for price to get there. You can do this on many many pairs at these time frames.
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jarroo,
specifically referring to the emboldened phrase above.... do u often trade these particular setups? i mean, it's a "non-strict" swing high (referring specifically to the chart mentioned), correct?
Yes. I will trade these "Non strict" setups but I will usully have many other confluences supporting them. Also, I'm a "how hard does it break" guy as well. Meaning I will gauge the break of the setup and determine if its a keeper or not.
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i was tempted to short it at 88.00 yest. but with the hols n that i refrained. A nice hard break today...Mmmm.. would be nice indeed.86ish seems reasonable for the first stop..200 EMA,365 EMA on the daily TF,and the round no...??then i have 85.5 - 86.(PPZ n 50% fib)
cheers
jon
Still looking good g_j_. Although it didn't break very hard it is steady and continious. I'm in at .8768. Stop loss above the .8815.
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jarroo,
i know that fully well. I see u say that several times & it acts as a constant reminder.
Thanks for this post, it's a confirmation that i could say acts as a "boost in confidence" within me, that u (like me & several others) are sometimes "non-strict"/unconventional (with your discretion of trades) as well..
Believe me, my approach becomes a whoooole lot easier when the A+ trades present themselves. So waiting patiently is the name of the game.
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nice one jarroo...damn holidays!!...dont we get enough weekends!!??hehe
iv got my order just below yesterdays low. momentum seems to be building thats for sure. good luck
jon
EDIT just got triggered @8738.(oandas low of yest.)
Looks like a keeper. I like the 8650ish level as a 1st target. (sorry can't post charts).
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jarroo,
what's your take on this: some traders in FF avoid posting their trade entries/exits as they are wary about the trade failing due to "trade manipulation/copying or whatever" by those who get to see the post
U, on the other hand, seem to be cool with it (not to mention successful like several here). Why?
As always, i'm inquisitive. Thanks!
The market is to large for this to happen, "trade manipulation/ copying . ."
I like showing real time trades sometimes to show others that this stuff works. And that there is many ways to skin a cat when a quality setup is presented. The Weekly BEOB Aud/Cad may not be the best setup, but a good one to learn from.
Also, to draw out others for their input and comments, which is always helpful.
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For the record, I can't handle posting anything but the best of my trades for a different reason. ...It changes how I approach the published trade. Doesn't work for me. Something to do with the need to be "right" is what I deduced.
Jaroo on the other hand does a great job of it.
Thanks bundy. You have had an instructive hand in getting me here.
There are many posts (way back when) where you have guided me in the right direction. And you still do. lol
Thanks brother.
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What do you folks think about this 4hr setup on oil?
Looks good Ted. Running into heavy Res.
And . . .
James16:
THIS IS CRITICAL.
WE MUST LEARN TO:
Notice a strong s/r area just beyond our pa if it exists.
Know that if we trade into it we had better be prepared for a quick reversal that could give us a loss if we are not prepared.
if we know its there, we have several choices.
1. get out when it gets there for a small profit.
2. take a small partial profit and move the remainder to BE.
3. stay in with your total position hoping for a break and move your stop to BE.
4. Dont enter until the level has been broken.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Notice a strong s/r area just beyond our pa if it exists.
Know that if we trade into it we had better be prepared for a quick reversal that could give us a loss if we are not prepared.
if we know its there, we have several choices.
1. get out when it gets there for a small profit.
2. take a small partial profit and move the remainder to BE.
3. stay in with your total position hoping for a break and move your stop to BE.
4. Don't enter until the level has been broken.
Hey Ted.
Got to love that #4 of "THIS IS CRITCAL" from James16. I tend to use it very much.
Looks like it worked out well if applied on this potential trade.
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re audcad weekly beob: (my own reasons for pulling out of this trade)
Shorting:
-a weekly beob when the weekly trend is up
-into a close (relative to the size of the beob) ppz with a round number
...yes I'm still a newb so I don't really know much ... I pulled out as I didn't understand the trade
*** Should I instead be looking for long PA opportunities at swing lows when the weekly trend is up?
Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos
adam777,
my view on audcad (looking at your chart & mine -XTB MT4) & observation of your chart above:
---the weekly bar/candle, to me, is like a PB/BEOB hybrid....
Wow, you guys sure but some thought into this Aud/Cad Weekly BEOB.
To tell you the truth, high quality A+ PA setups are not very complicated at all. Their pretty cut and dry from the get go.
This setup is up there quality wise and the only thing missing (for me) is the hard break and/or steady continious downward action. Which is not happening here. It also is not happening in the upward direction either.
I'm still in this trade since my stop loss was not hit. But this is not my usual way. I would have grabbed some at the 25 or 30 pips and move to break even by now. But I am giving some more leeway because I see at as a higher quality trade.
I do like Bullish PA in a uptrend and Bearish PA in a downtrend, you can't go wrong with that adam.
The BEOB is off the strong .9000 which is the 61.8 fib on the weekly time frame. This is correct?
Sorry I can't post charts now.
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jarroo,
did u reenter another short on the audcad? price slightly went above your entry price. or whatever the circumstance u don't add into a position? Thanks!
If I'm already in a postition and another high quality PA setup presents itself in the same direction, I will add to my position.
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jarroo,
great! thanks!
so, what will be the limit? how many reentries? basis/factors to consider & limits (like how many percentage of your account will u risk for the reentry/total position)?
Sorry I can't posts chart right now, but look at the Daily Gbp/Jpy. Do you see a few upward trending PBs from Feb.? This is how I would add to my position. Take some off the table along the way, of course.
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it just happens to be one of the very few sports i love!! you know im gonna have that tune in my head for ever !! lol
i was gonna post about the au/cad but youve beaten me to it!! finally into profit, for the second time, lets hope it stays down this time..??
yours must be looking good now with that entry
jon
Yes it's looking good. I had faith in the setup. Much like Mike would have. Nothing wrong about being like Mike, trust me on that one.
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For most of them, the market will drain their accounts until all that's left is demo trading
This is when I started taking Jim's 1st post seriously a few years back and stopped F-ing around. Took me about 7-8 months for it to finally sink in. And I'm still learning and improving.
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what all of you have to see in this is that Ryan earned his stripes. the fact that he is better at lower time frames than larger is no mysterious thing. im better at a 2000 tick dow chart than i am a daily forex chart. in my case its not really the time frames its the markets. i know the dow from years of trading it.
i swear when ryan talks its like im talking to myself on the phone or something. its very strange actually. there are only 2 or 3 people here over the years that have made me feel like that.
its really very simple.
Ryan has traveled...
1st post material Jim? Absolutely.
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It really never stops, I am still working on turning a 5 pip stop into a 50 pip gain 75% of the time lol, but until that happens I am at the old 1:1 with 70ish%
Hey Ryan, I've always liked your posts. PBs with the trend (i.e. retraces, etc.) are awesome.
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It's easy and makes money that's why people don't like it. They need more stuff on the screen so they look smart lol
That's where my biggest gains have come so far this year.
Example Usd/Cad. I'm still in this trade (daily PB), although my current position is not as big as I would liked it to be. lol
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i had 1 like that yesterday, with a tight stop. i had several of those in the past years. so, we're on the same boat, i guess.
sChaos, you have many posts which can be very (how do you say?) . . animated . . at times.
No disrespect, friend, I don't see many charts from you. This is a Chart Thread after all. Maybe you can show that trade you had yesterday. Was it Price Action related?
Just curious,
Jim
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Probably because "she" is always a tough one to figure. "She" is mysterious. "She" needs to be studied to figure out her ways. "She" is gonna do what she is gonna do.....
K.I.S.S.
I like that one better. lol.
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Yeah thats the only trade ill be taking for now, till i get a new signal. I trade just GJ.its enuf headache for me.
Concerning auslanco, i had a long signal at 146.44 closed it at 149.44. should have stayed in though but a profit is a profit. The trade was based on 4hr gann turning bullish, breaking above 4hr 50ema. i like to stay in a trade until i get a valid reverse signal.
I was awaiting the daily candle before the breakout would form an evening star but it didnt as i pointed out. 4hr gann was about to flip bearish but it didnt. so there...
I see that now. Breakout trades can be a little tricky. Added confluence is always a good thing. the more the merrier.
Nice one ephisis.
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Yep...Its now a free trade so it can do as it wants....
So news could either give me a huge winner or simply get out at break even...
So this trade could potentially go down to say 1.3700 or 1.3500, hell even 1.3000 and the worst possible outcome to you would be a break even trade! WOW.
Just kidding Sherman. I understand all to well.
I like your style.
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Alright I have taken 50 percent out of the market ...took 12 pips with a 30 pip stop ...so now I have a hard stop of 24 pip stop from my entry...
So you probably got stopped out. But you knew where it was likely to go and if it got there, what it was likely it could do (which was reverse). And you protected yourself accordingly. Your miles ahead of many many traders out there. (just like the ones on this thread, of course. )
A very successful trade in my book.
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When you told me to short AUD/CAD I believed you but now it's doing this:
What do these patterns mean, please?
I haven't told anyone to short the Aud/Cad. I did however, show a potential PA BEOB setup on the Weekly Aud/Cad that looked promising to short.
(Chart: not a current chart, the lowest it got to was the .8690 level) (Sorry can't post charts now)
I have taked profits on this one at .8708 and moved my stop loss not at break even but just above the actual break at .8772. So if I'm stopped out, a net profit will be made.
You are showing a 4 hour time frame when the setup was off the Weekly. I like to determine the management of a given trade on the same time frame that the setup was given. Meaning, if you take a setup on the Daily, manage it on the Daily. Looking at lower time frames when the setup was presented on a higher time frame can get confusing and provide false information.
What do these patterns mean? Price is trending down.
Jim
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Keep pondering over this aspect and you'll be a real successful trader sooner than you may have thought...
Support and resistance ....It's got a lot more to it then just an MA...keep looking and congrats for being on the right path...if it's anything out there that affects the markets in a technical way then it has to be this....Support and Resistance
Oh and BTW...
Folks what's up?
I am not back up, and the exams are still in progress, just decided to stroll into the thread, it's been one hell of a time...
Hey junior. Your exams may be ending but your studying will never end.
See you soon,
Jim
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I'm guilty of dropping down to the 4h looking @ resistance as well.
Dropping down from, say, the Daily to the 8 hour or 4 hour is not so bad when looking for short term targets. But from the Weekly to the 4 hour is a big difference.
For an extreme example, say you took a high quality Bearish PB on the Daily and you see a Bullish A+ PB on the 15 min, would that cause you to exit the trade? No, even if it broke hard and ran because that 15 min Bullish PB may have a short life and then continue back down with the Bearish Daily PB.
Let me know if I'm making sense. lol
Jim
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If you found a pb on the daily chart bullish for example you can enter a better price on the 15 mins chart for exmple could be on the daily chart a bullish pin bar but on the second day the price will go first more down trying to break the last support so from the samller time frames like the 4 hours chart in this setuation you could know if the price will retrace a little bit or go with the way OFthe pin bar , but you cant close your trade because you found a pin bar on the 15 mins chart , it could...
Yes, this is a good approach as well if I understand you correctly. Lower time frame opposite Price Action indicating a retrace. Or Bullish PB forms and then retraces. Look for Bullish PA on lower time frames on the retrace. The NuckingFuts approach.
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jarroo,
u seem to be (have been) online. Sorry for the late reply for the above post (Thursday), Sir.
had only 3-4hours of sleep during that time. i just had 3-4hours of sleep earlier too (woke up 7am Manila time). it seems that i've got mbqb11's vitality.
anyway, the gbp$ long trade (live) was PA-related, but the stop/money management employed is of a restrained nature (due to account size) so u could say that my stop was not PA-based. so i refrained...
Nice Chart sChaos. I would like to see more of them then funny faces.
They don't have to pure J16 setup, just relate in some way. Also remember, waiting for the break on all PA setups-Confirms the setup. If the is no break, there is no valid setup.
Thanks sChaos.
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Hi,
I also noticed USDJPY d2 hammer. I am posting picture so everyone can seeand discus.
When I look at its shape, possition and at gold chart , I would be realy surprised if this one fails. But lets see.
Juicy.
Edit: Good advice ghous
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That post was a re-entry after pulling out of a trade because I originally entered but didn't understand the context of the PA withing its surroundings (PPZ's/ round numbers, etc).
A few weeks ago I always considered entering and managing trades similar to your above method, but recently I've been shorting at the break of the daily, and trailing my stops at lower and lower "swing highs" on lower time frames (not PA based).
Your idea of stepping down one timeframe (or half the original timeframe) to enter and manage trades...
Yeah Adam, that was the basic point of managing a trade on the same time frame that it was taken.
So for example on the current Aud/Cad Weekly BEOB. Price has broken the setup and then retraced back up. We can now look for Bearish PA on the retrace i.e. the 4 hour Bearish PB, in yellow.
So there's two ways to manage this trade. You can manage it as a Weekly BEOB break (again). Or manage it as a 4 hour PB on the 4 hour time frame only. And yes, the 4 hour PB is not the best PA setup, but its not bad.
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hi Alexandra, was wondering what trigger you used and when you first got on board?? i seem to have just sat and watched this pair falling, ignoring every chance it gave to get in!!??i particularly liked the BEOB on 18/5....still didnt enter though.
i was also wondering what has been your largest stop loss during this trade??
cheers
jon
also jarroo, are you still in this one??them numbers in the pip column must be looking healthy by now!!?? hehe
can i ask if you added to this possition since you entered?? and again how wide...
I caught all those PBs except for that small one on 4-28-09. And I still in that PB/IB or two Day PB, but its with a very small position, regrettably. (1,400 pips) Took to much off the table. lol Play it too safe.
I haven't added to it but the DBHLC (or BEOB) would have been a perfect place to do it.
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cheers.
jon
EDIT:yesterday i played the e/u and the u/c breakouts with my full position untill price hit my trailing stops.(dont know how i will feel about this approach with a large acc. ) now wouldnt that be nice on the u/c chart!! hehe
Yeah, I understand. Why do you think I have keep it running for so long. It's a small position. lol
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Here's another example of managing a trade on the same time frame that it was taken. The Cad PB/IB or 2 Day PB. We drop to the 4 hour chart and a PB is presented in yellow (not a bad one).
Do we exit our 2 Day PB or do we wait to see if the 4 hour PB fullfills itself and hits next 4 hour/Daily PPZ level and then heads back down. Well, that's what it did.
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Here is my first analysis on the GBP/CHF weekly chart.
I spot an PB with a good confluence that suport it:
- it's on an area of PPZ
- we have a round number 1.7500
- we have confluence with 61.8 fib number
- if we look at the bigger picture we see that it in a down trend
So I say that this is an A tread.I will manage this tread on the weekley chart because here we spot the PB,but I'm concerned about this large time frame so I think that will see some ret. and to play this PB on the ret not on the break of it.How do you guys play it on a ret...
Not waiting for a break, on less then ideal quality setup, is a big mistake.
How I would play this one is to wait for the break and see how it breaks. Meaning a tight stop and see if it breaks hard/strong, with short targets. The Daily looks promising with some bearish divergence. Other then that, Mike's summary is the best way to go.
Jim
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I agree with this post Aaron. Just a few points of clarification. I might be super picky on daily/weekly but I trade much more on the 4hr and 1hr. It is simply where I am comfortable.I am much more comfortable waiting for 3-5 daily/weekly trades, while spending most of my trading on the h4, and h1. For those that only trade on the daily/weekly you might sitll only take 3-5 a month, or maybe 1-2, or maybe 10. It comes down to your strategy as a whole.
Thanks Aaron always enjoy your posts
Mike
Mike's super picky on the 4 Hour and Hourly too. lol
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Friday daily bar was an "undecided" bar so maybe won't break long but if it doesn't, then probably no entry.
Quote:
Originally Posted by clockwork71
Yes, I feel that you are correct in your analysis. I think that it's a great spot for a pinbar.
There is only one thing that makes me a touch "iffy" on this, and that's the fact we keep making lower highs. It just look like it's running out of steam.
Truth be told, this bar breaks north - I will be long. Even with that lower highs.....
Manage your risk, let the rest work itself out.
The key is the .8800. Will act as it had in the past as Support or is it now acting as Resistence? Are the Weekly PB and 3 Day PB (chart) giving us a hint on where Price is going? Maybe, but I would like to see those PBs bigger, of course.
I agree with you and clockwork, lets see if and how they break.
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Hi,
I also noticed USDJPY d2 hammer (Pin Bar). I am posting picture so everyone can seeand discus.
When I look at its shape, possition and at gold chart , I would be realy surprised if this one fails. But lets see.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 4fun
Dont believe it was mentioned in this thread but U/J had a nice 2day pinbar to end last week, its bar-b que time and some cold ones here will check in later hope everyone has a great June ciao.
Watching this one.
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What a great eye you have Jaroo. How do you manage all the period combining? If it was me I'd spend ages combing all these combined charts. I know some, like 2 day pins, are easy to spot. But a 3 day pin? That's smart. Do you see it visually first and then slap on periodcon, or do you plough through the combined timeframes chart by chart.
Nice work.
Well I started with converting everything at first lol, but after awhile you start catching them by eye. Just like its easy to see 2 Day PB or 2 Day Outside Bars. Especially after a big move off a strong PPZ level with no (apparent) Bar confirmation.
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hello jarroo,
i'm also a fan of your periodicon. hope my chart is healthy and well drawn like fine art...lol. Also, can i consider that bullish outside bar to be on a swing low or high?please comment on my chart. PEACE
Looks great urchman.
No, I would not consider that BUOB (or DBLHC) to be at a swing Low. But if we are in a new upward trend then it could indicate a trend continuation.
I like the fact that the 150.00ish is at the previous bar High, which is a retrace characteristic of BUOB, BEOB, DBLCH, etc. It may also break and go to the moon. Should be fun to watch either way.
Jim
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That 2 day pinbar triggered my entry was lookin for a retrace had it on autopilot away from the helm will also leave my other order sticken to my gameplan.Giving this trade room to maneuver thus a smaller pip size.
Looking good 4fun. Ryanmcd would be proud.
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Oh ya You are going to laugh but I am looking at doing a hybrid of DIBS on the 5min using IB's so I can do a 2:1 RR. The 1:1 is nice and with 70%+ it makes money, if it's 2:1 well I will be printing it. Spent about 15 hours this weekend messing with it. Pretty much taking IB's with trend and Stop at cost when it's the risk target is 2:1.
Once I get it nailed down I will post up, the problem I had with 1:1 is it was the wrong way to trade for ME, some people even say use a 30 pip stop with a 15 target lol sounds like 75% winners for BE.
Sound interesting. Whatever gets you to the "free trade" and let it ride.
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Yes, believe it or not, I am looking at the short side of the Yen as risk aversion flows desist. It's a matter of having a view and waiting for supportive PA. Besides, I don't want to chase the other markets at this stage. From a practical standpoint, I do see 94.50 as a rather critical area.
Nice job guys. 94.50 made a whole lot of sense.
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folks,
What about EUR/GBP ?
PPZ below (red rect)
I found, daily ib broke up, yesterday .
Is this worth to buy ?
I see you all search pin bar, what about BUB and BEB ?
If it's crossed PPZ in daily ru consider it too ? (eg. GU)
Thank you
We do look for Inside Bars (as with other PA formations) at swing Highs/Lows. But that is only part of the story. Do we have supportive confluence with the setup? What are we trading into i.e. support, resistence, PPZ levels, round numbers.
The Eur/Gbp IB was at swing low and off a strong PPZ level, .8650. All good. Now where are we heading that may gives us trouble? The .8800 sure was the level for us to . . . . .
James16:
THIS IS CRITICAL.
WE MUST LEARN TO:
Notice a strong s/r area just beyond our pa if it exists.
Know that if we trade into it we had better be prepared for a quick reversal that could give us a loss if we are not prepared.
if we know its there, we have several choices.
1. get out when it gets there for a small profit.
2. take a small partial profit and move the remainder to BE.
3. stay in with your total position hoping for a break and move your stop to BE.
4. Dont enter until the level has been broken.
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Thanks bro. Watching out for a daily PA set up for short. We have lots of conflunces betewwn 156 and 160. Till then im still long. No one knows, we may go higher towards 160.
Very Nice ephisi. We may test the 61.8 at the PPZ level of 179.50.
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Hi all,
after some days of rest and relax (i got burned on audusd few days ago) i think that now i'm ready to come back on the market. After my 3 profitable months on demo, i understood that going live is very different
Now..
GbpChf is at a critical level i think: 1.75 is a strong PPZ...i'm waiting for some PA that tells me what to do!
And AudUsd has literally burned the hystorical PPZ at 0.88, let's see if this level will turn into support or will do his job as resistance...
That's it bakkos. Finding these critical, confuenced areas (location) and waiting for PA to tip its hand.
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.
(BTW, I should have look at TL before entering UJ last night...)
Not sure how you managed the UJ last night eswap0. But let me say this and its not a criticism of you at all.
When the 2 Day PB broke (or any PA setup for that matter) and hits an obvious 1st target (S/R, PPZ, Highs, Lows, etc.) and one doesn't take profit or protects oneself, by expecting more pips, the person is suffering from Delusions of Grandeur. Protect yourself on great setups and the profits will take care of themselves. (imo) (sorry can't post current chart)
Jim
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Healthy criticism is the path to excelence
(BTW, how do you say in English when you print the cows with a sign using a red hot piece of steel?)
This is the way I learned this today.
Thanks for your help!
I'm guilty as charged with this as well, eswap0. It took me a couple of James16 "rants" before it finally sank in for me. lol
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Can't agree more. I traded this one and exited almost the same place with part and was stopped out with the rest. I thought it will be much better, but no more hoping, it kills accounts by thousands.
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For me I kill it if it starts going bad like I posted yesterday, I dont wait for the stop if it's going sideways I kill it, then . .
I like that . . Kill it.
The tight stops I use on high quality PA setups (and not so high quality setups ), I may have an initial stop of 30 to 40 pips, but if Price isn't acting like it suppose to (lol) at a given break . . . I will kill it.
Who cares if once I kill it and it then goes to the moon, which has happened a lot, so what. Because I know the opposite has happened as well many times. I kill it and it saved me many many negative pips.
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Ryan,
I'm not sure if you were reading the thread over the last 6 months, but I"ve been paying close attention to risk, money managment, and having a plan for each trade. If you look over my posts, you will see that I have done a lot of work testing different exit strategies that are being used on this thread. I have adopted #10 (with minor revisions) on the word document from this post: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=26123
I guess I don't outline my plan because most of the people following this thread...
I sure he wasn't talking about you Josh. Your a man with a plan. And we all have learned a lot from you sir.
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Ryan makes a good point.
Although there are a lot of newer traders in this thread looking to learn and get better so not as much real time trade posts with R:R plans etc.
Here's one I like. EURAU - BUOB at swing low, MACD divergence off a PPZ.
Risk is 2% as always for me, no R:R figured out in advance as I don't operate like that on Daily.
Looking at 1.8000-1.8100 area as a good 1st target. Will trail the trade and see how far up it goes and what price will do once it reaches that area to re-evaluate S/L and next target.
PS: I will go on the...
Liking this one moneybags and Josh. 1.7500 at the previous bar high area could be an aggressive entry (tight stops) . . . that's if it gets there.
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Something I've never understood about killing a trade if price doesn't go as you expect....
...isn't this interfering with your plan? I mean, either you have a stop in place for 1R or you don't, right? If you have a mental area where you're going to kill the trade if price doesn't do what you'd expect then isn't that just a smaller stop, albeit a mental one, for a smaller percentage risk. And doesn't it encourage emotional trading?
And it wouldn't it have meant that you would have killed yesterday's USDCAD before it had a chance to come back...
Quick answer (from me), when I started taking this business and method seriously I had a problem (and probably still do) with 100+ pip drawdowns. Even if the position size was adjusted accordingly.
Much of it had to do with the quality of the setups I was taking, which when I started, wasn't the best. As I grew more patient and picky with the setups (practise, practise) that I would select, I saw that some would give a nice amount of pips before it drew down and some would never draw down. And of course, some would fail.
I decided that a tighter stop would net me some nice pips or stop me out at break even and some would run to the moon. But I would never see the ones that fail. The higher the quality of the setup makes this so much easier.
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Now you can help me with the 4hr stuff lol. I just have to set it and forget it really its more of a mindset to me then anything. Throw up a chart or 2 of what you traded last on the 4hr if you got time so I can maybe learn the longer term stuff.
I've seen your charts. Just change the top left corner from 5 min to 4 hour and apply what you do. The setups will take a little longer, of course. lol But the pip amounts will be bigger.
I can't post charts right now . . but I will be happy to do so.
Jim
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I'm testing the tight stop theory at the moment. So, for you it goes to quick break even as well. Makes sense because of RR levels.
These bars seem so huge tonight and I am so used to playing a big bar in the "classic" way but I am really trying to refine and test things because I want another approach, and I am not comfortable taking entries before the breach.
So with USDCAD you would have taken the breach with a tight stop, been stopped out, then got in again when it came back...and now you'd be sitting in profit. Am I right?
Thanks for...
I did not trade the Cad baby PB. When your thoughts are mirroring Mike's, before Mike posts his comments, your stating to get it. lol.
I thought this was an obvious "no trade" to many here. Sure sometimes they work out as Mike has stated in many different ways, but more times they don't.
But if I was to trade the baby Cad PB the very weak break would have got me out with a small loss.
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But if I was to trade the baby Cad PB the very weak break would have got me out with a small loss.
As I look at the Cad now it would have been a small profit or break even trade instead of a loss if I played the initial break. Because of how it broke.
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What do I do next ?. . . where's that post from krue . . oh here it is :
Quote:
Originally Posted by krue
"James16:
THIS IS CRITICAL.
WE MUST LEARN TO:
Notice a strong s/r area just beyond our pa if it exists.
Know that if we trade into it we had better be prepared for a quick reversal that could give us a loss if we are not prepared.
if we know its there, we have several choices.
1. get out when it gets there for a small profit.
2. take a small partial profit and move the remainder to BE.
3. stay in with your total position hoping for a break and move your stop to BE.
4. Dont enter until the level has been broken."
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The EURAUD and Cable were the ones that appealed to me. I've stepped away from charts so can't post for you Jarroo.
There were so many signals tonight. And the other "less discussed" part of trading (after RR that we've been talking about) came up for me today. Psychology. My first live trade was the GC daily IB long yesterday and it was a 1% loser. It rattled me more than I thought it would. 6 months of demo, a year of study and I thought live would be no different. But even with manageable risk it made me lose a little confidence. I think...
It's a great post Tia. Like much of your posts. Studying Mike's, Jim's, bundy's, etc charts and analysis helped me big time (and still does). I try to put what they're saying in my own words or thoughts until it makes sense to me. To tell you the truth I ignored raczek's posts in the beginning, (not all but most. lol.) Simply because I couldn't put them in my own words or thoughts. They were over my head. lol
After awhile of more practise and study and then more practise I began developing my own style which is framed by Jim's approach and structured like Mike's.
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Posting charts asking "What do you think?" will more often than not get a polite encouraging answer on here from seniors, but it's dangerous to get reliant on it.
I agree with this Tia.
Sometimes I would like to reply "Well, what do you think about the setup? Present your case. Give examples of how this type of setup worked before and how did you manage it. etc. " lol I would probably scare away too many people just starting out.
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Here's a great trade on the 4 hour (that I missed tonight. darn it.) that shows a great setup and applies the "This is critical" from James16.
Green area above is the Daily/ Weekly PPZ level. The initial break gave up about 30+ pips. #1. Get out when it gets there for a small profit. Or #2. Take a small partial profit and move the remainder to BE.
The blue line is that area that we look out for because "We know its there". So, we can wait to take the trade after that level is broken or when Price closes below that level on the 4 hour chart (or maybe the Hourly). #4. Dont enter until the level has been broken. Or wait for Price to retrace to this blue line. (purple lines are obvious take profit levels.)
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GBP/USD is my favorite setup of the day because it appears to have more breathing room than the other setups. I am placing the stop loss 10 pips above the high of the BEOB. Yes, that means price will have to move far for a decent R:R, but I want to follow the basic stop loss rules this early in my trading.
The BEOB bounced off of what I see as a monthly PPZ near the nice round number of 1.6600 and a 38.2 fib on my monthly chart. Also, the BEOB ran through the 365 EMA.
I do not see any "areas of concern" above the PPZ near 1.6000. I do not...
You beat me to it. Very nice Gator man.
Edit: The 1.62 and 1.61 may be a problem just for their round numberness ( yes, I did say round numberness). lol
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It would be a nice trade Jarroo though I missed it too. I entered on the hourly PB (pardon me for posting hourly chart).
1.6000 seems to be a nice spot and area of interest (imho). Since it breaks the daily BEOB (nice location imho), I tend to hold this one and hopefully it does not retrace too early Anyway, it's already a free trade.
Have a goodnite/day everyone
Quote of the day: Learn to let go, and you will trade like you have wings.
Its not a bad way to go, arcus, looking for bearish PA on a lower time (hourly) once a higher time (Daily) quality PA setup presents itself. Ask NuckingFuts. lol. I would only say that be just as picky with the lower time frame setup as you would with any other setup.
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just my take on the gb/us setup.
im short also (about the same price as that 1h pin,TrailingST set at @ BE. full possition)but im watching this level closely as i feel it carries a little weight.i also have a 2 * fib confluence.
jon
Absolutely g_j_. The Weekly developing potential PB may be the strength we need to push it lower.
Or this confluenced level you have shown (1.6200-1.600) may hold up and we look for bullish PA.
Very nice.
Jim
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Is your stop behind the high of these 2 daily BEOB's, or are you dropping down to the 4h (or another TF) looking for price action?
Just trying to further understand and learn from your trades and the R:R implications.
Thanks
Adam
My initial stops were 40 pips away from the break of each trade. Once Price broke and gave up 30 pips I moved my stops to break even. (better seen on the Hourly charts). The setup looked strong for a nice run. And they still do.
But I let the G/U stop out at break even and on the G/C I was able to grab some off the 1st half position on the other half stopped out at break even.
I look at these setups to be in the "A" catagory but I'm not will to take any draw down. Its just my style of trading Price Action. If a quality bearish PA is presented on the 4 hour and/or Daily I will repeat above.
I've been a long-time fan of this thread, although have rarely if ever posted.
I decided to re-read (or re-re-...read) it from the beginning, and just realised I'd made a bit of a boob.
For some reason, I thought Jim had recommended using a 365 EMA.
On re-reading, it seems like it should be a 365 SMA. When I have read forward looking for confirmation, I can't find it, although I'm sure it's there somewhere.
Well, I should of course, try both, and I've tried swapping between on the same chart, and it's interesting, because...
I have taken another entry of a touch of the 365 on a retrace of the beob. I like the fact that the bar broke before retracing. Small stop as per my last entry.
Hey fxp have you ever tried a muti-time frame moving average? It shows for example, a 365 ema on the Daily on the 4 hour, Hourly or whatever time frame.
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I have taken another entry of a touch of the 365 on a retrace of the beob. I like the fact that the bar broke before retracing. Small stop as per my last entry.
Sweet entry on that one fxp.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Hey fxp have you ever tried a muti-time frame moving average? It shows for example, a 365 ema on the Daily on the 4 hour, Hourly or whatever time frame.
Let me re-word this. It will show, for example, the location of the Daily 365 ema on the 4 four, 1 hour, what ever time frame.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Hey just curious what you guys think. Would you consider the previous Daily Bar on the EUR/JPY chart a BEOB or just a Pin Bar or both?
I don't see much talk about this setup, but to me it looks wonderful! 137.00 is great S/R on the weekly and the daily and price has stalled at this level...it has even given us multiple signals on the 4h and Daily!
I would like to hear everyone's take on this. Currently I am short at 137.03 with stop placed above 138.
Got a chart?
I know people like to get input on their setups and others like to give a "heads up" of a potential setup. But its hard to get a clear picture of what your seeing if we can't see it.
This is of course, the James16 Chart Thread.
Thanks,
Jim
(also because I can't see my regular charts right now. lol)
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
I lost it on demo account where i'm testing 40 pips stop loss with 2% risk. stop was 1.4129, I usually lock in break even after 20 pips in profit andthought this trade had enough room to give me such an opportunity.
datogia, you got it buddy. But there is no thinking in this. Once the break gave up some pips (which was about 30 pips I believe) you got to stick to your guns on the break even placement, even if Price touches it to the pip and then runs for a 1000 pips after that. Its tough, I know.
I was fighting the same thing on the Gbp/Usd BEOB initial break which gave about 30 pips and I move to break even right away and got stopped out. I didn't even get half at that level. I was "thinking", this is a great setup, A++ , let it go, let it go, . . . IT WILL COME BACK . . have you used those words before . . Ouch, I have.
I bit the pillow and took the break even stop out.
Also if it's a great setup, which it was, you can always reenter at a retrace or lower time frame high quality PA, etc. I reenter at the intial break.
Just some thoughts, because it sounds like you got it.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
I am with you, bro. the pity is I missed 50% ret entry.
Any idea what to do with UC?
I have been gready, don't believe in market don't offer me opportunity of letting the profit run. I prefer to letting the loss take place, I simply determined to see if I can swing a daily leg to see the serious profit. what do you think, bro?
Are you in the UC?
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
I am with you, bro. the pity is I missed 50% ret entry.
Any idea what to do with UC?
I have been gready, don't believe in market don't offer me opportunity of letting the profit run. I prefer to letting the loss take place, I simply determined to see if I can swing a daily leg to see the serious profit. what do you think, bro?
So krue, you took the baby Pin Bar break? If so, I would be out at least half position (if not all) at the first area of S/R.(chart). This was a tough trade. Against a strong trend with a baby PB, initial break was weak but managable. Second break was good and hit the target squarely. Get out there and call yourself lucky. (imo)
"I prefer to letting a loss take place", you got to change this way of thinking, friend. Losses are avoided or limited as much as possible, not prefered. Are you crazy man.
Long term trading is very possible in the Forex market, but it takes an abililty to be able to endure large amount of pip swings in a given Day and/or weeks. But the first and foremost would be to limit your risk and manage your losses. (imo)
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Spent some time tonight with my son going over some charts and possible trades he is considering. Thought i would share his record this year on this pair.
I just read my email. That's one lucky kid growing up with "James16" as your dad.
I look forward to his future Thread.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
huhhh, almost get crazy, I konw. you are absolutely correct, managing loss is the foremost lesson one has to master before being successful.
okey, let me liquidate the position then. thank you, jarroo
Now watch it go to the moon.
krue, I'm not telling you to liquidate your position. I was just stating my opinion, as asked. If you see something more in go long the Cad, go for it.
He took the baby PB on the Daily Cad. He is expecting more out of it then it gave. (I believe.) It wasn't a high quailty setup, due to the size of the PB but it worked out.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
If that PB was just a 100 pips bigger that would have been all I needed. Great location at the 1.0800. I guess Mike is rubbibg off on me. And that is a good thing.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Correct me if I'm wrong seniors (it''s my first post here after observing so long). For IBs, the best is to wait for a BEOB/BUOB after the IB which also breaks the bar before IB. This will raise the probability of a move to happen.
And if several IBs in a row and a break of all of them by candle, perhaps this will also lead to a great move.
(at the point of putting my opinion, i thought of a chart where J16 posted that ranging market is our friend)
LSs
Yes LS and welcome. But remember the location, is it at a swing High (BEOB) or a Swing Low (BUOB). Are there other confluences that support that setup as well.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Sorry for delay. Is it a custom indi? If yes I would like to try.
cheers
FXP
Here's the multi time frame Moving Average. With some details. Let me know if you need help with it.
Time Frame _M1 1
Time frame_M5 5
Time Frame_M15 15
Time Frame_M30 30
Time Frame_H1 60
Time Frame_H4 240
Time Frame_D1 1440
Time Frame_W1 10080
Time Frame_MN1 43200
You must use the numeric value of the time frame that you want to use
when you set the Time Frame' value with the indicator inputs.
---------------------------------------
ma__shift PRICE_CLOSE 0 Close price.
ma_shift OPEN 1 Open price.
ma_shift HIGH 2 High price.
ma_shift LOW 3 Low price.
ma_shift 4 Median price, (high+low)/2.
ma_shift TYPICAL 5 Typical price, (high+low+close)/3.
ma_shift WEIGHTED 6 Weighted close price, (high+low+close+close)/4.
You must use the numeric value of the Applied Price that you want to use
when you set the 'applied_price' value with the indicator inputs.
---------------------------------------
MA Method_SMA 0 Simple moving average,
MA Method_EMA 1 Exponential moving average,
MA Method_SMMA 2 Smoothed moving average,
MA Method_LWMA 3 Linear weighted moving average.
You must use the numeric value of the MA Method that you want to use
when you set the 'ma_method' value with the indicator inputs.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
he is long off the recent OB and decided tonight to set his stop at 8792 which locks about 100 pips profit.
we have an alert set at 89. if it reaches there i have no idea what he has planned.
if i know him he will probably snug it up under the 150.
geez... i feel like his personal broker sometimes.
LOL That's great.
That Eur/Gbp post really helps out a lot of people here. I see so many complicated scenarios that I want to throw may hands up and say "just what for the break" or "just wait until it gets to that level".
It really is simple and when we start to complicate things, it should be a red flag to step back and take a more common sense second look.
Thanks jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
This was my target as well Jaroo but I shot myself in the foot this morning....
I entered short at 6240. This morning I closed half at 6050 and decided to put a 30 pip trailing stop on it. My broker recently went to the 5 decimal system and I typed 30 (3 pips) instead of 300 (30 pips) and promptly got stopped out at 6045.
Still a nice trade but ........ MAN do I feel silly...
Now I wonder if it's worth trying to reenter...
The sucks. I guess its better to make a mistake in profit then in a loss. I wouldn't try and chase it, that's just me. Just take your lumps and wait for the next one. Some nice Weekly setups shaping up.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Agreed. I'm not one for chasing either. I've learned a lot from demos and chasing the market or jumping on moving trains...lol
I've already surpassed my weekly goal by almost 2X so I think I'm out for the week which is good as now I can focus on my third time reading the thread. Yes, I see a few nice weekly pins shaping up for next week.
Excellent.
Re-reading the thread is really a great thing to do once you become more versed and experienced with the J16 method. You pick up and learn so many different thing that you didn't see before.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Hi J16 people!
I was looking the 4h charts (15mins to close on my feed), and i noticed this possible setup:
- nice bullish pin
- with the trend
- nice minor ppz (blue box)
- 38.2 fibo ret (not showed in the chart)
Similar setup on EurGbp...see chart below.
Looks good bakko. Every thing lines up nice but that damn PB size. If it breaks I would manage it tight.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Jarroo, am I thinking right on this as a short due to PPZ and fib #'s?
Yes I agree with rustyjeff. Traffic (previous High, Lows, S/R, etc.)to the left of a potential setup is always on the watch. Less traffic the better for it to run. What's the best approach? "This is Critical" from James16.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Does anyone know any good video/audio clips to listen to? Just looking for things that will sharpen up forex skills and teach you about emotions that go along with trading..etc.
actually what i usually do is set the full bar stop, place an alert at 25 to 35 pips in case of a quick reversal and an alert where i intend to go breakeven.
this covers 3 areas.
1. FULL BAR STOP - a potential/possible catastrophe scenario with the full bar stop.
2. QUICK REVERSAL ALERT - a CHOICE/CHANCE with the alert set at aprox 30 pips to MANIPULATE the full bar stop or get out with a very "small" loss. IWANT CONTROL OVER THE TRADE. I DONT WANT THE TRADE TO CONTROL ME.
3. BREAKEVEN LEVEL ALERT - a conservative...
This is a good post and describes my style very well.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
hi guys! after a lot of reading through the posts and my own setup and analisys i managed to enter 2 trades last night, one on eur/usd and another on usd/cad. maybe beginers luck...but managed to enter playing s/r suports plus bar analisys on daily TF. right now i'm +217pips on eur/usd and +208 on usd/cad.... i attatched my charts... what you guys think of it?
TBLHC (Triple Bar Low Higher Close) on the Cad at a swing low with a retrace to the previous bar high. Very nice.
and 2 Day PB at a swing High (I caught this one as well.)
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
I think this relates partly to a few foregoing postings, but it's something I've been thinking about lately:
Do many people actually trade the weekly directly, or do most people use it mostly just as a general directional pointer, and then trade daily or lower?
I have mostly traded daily, 4H and 1H, but am currently concentrating on the daily.
I was considering trying the weekly, especially as it seems there are some good setups coming up, and was wondering how to manage the trade. As well as the large stops, trade management on something...
Hey Mike. I trade the Weekly all the time. Not all, but many of mine have been posted here. James16 recommends it as per post #1.
Yes, next week will be interesting.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Too much traffic or do you think this pin is tradable?
It's very tradable. And not taking it would be a smart decision from the point that you made about the traffic and nobody would argue with you on that.
But what Jim's method shows is that when overall Price is consolidating, which is most of the time (an important point) these situations can be traded. Because we know the formation and we know where Price is likely to go and we get out at that level no matter what.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Nice question.
From left to right the 3rd bar triggered after a week,the 4th is in traffic,the 5th and 6th are BEOB at swing lows.
So i wouldnt take 4 out of these 9 trades.
Only Jim's son can shed some light here
Quote:
Originally Posted by LasVahGoose
3 of them are not a swing points, they are continuation. Is that it?
I don't know the ones that Jim's son didn't take. But #5 and #6 are at a swing low and would be a no trade.
See, I knew this would be fun. (yeah, I know , I got to get out more. lol)
I know this is off topic but 65 years ago today was D-Day, I live not far from a Marine airbase and when they flyover my house in formation my spine tingles and I stare in awe with pride.Some close friends recently deployed to Afghanistan,Black Sheep squadron I prey each and everyone of them return.To all who serve past and present words fall short of the respect I have for all of you.
Amen brother, Amen.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
It's not just a question of what is most profitable. In fact it's largely an issue of psychology and account size. Jim tends to get his stop very very quickly to break even and take some off the table at first target. It may not be the most profitable strategy but it's the most comfortable for him and he has a large account size and so a few pips means a lot to him. Jim can't stand too much drawdown so he kills his trades early as well.
The bottom line is, we are not machines. If you're not comfortable with your profit taking strategy you will...
Another great post Aaron. Just goes to show that there is many ways to skin a cat. When the cat is high quality, A++, PA setup makes all of what you said a whole lot easier and simple.
I have taken "partial losses" or scaled out of a trade, again managing risk. This usually is when I'm indifferent about the quality of a given setup. It doesn't happen often.
Thanks,
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
If you would trade according rules you would never have lost a dime, because you wouldn't have a
ENTRY triggerd
other than that I see a tradeable BUOB but not a PB
if I am wrong, please correct me. I am learning too!
mea
Yes, you got it mea. But I'm sure you meant to say BEarish Ouside Bar, not BUllish Outside Bar.
Nice setup, BEOB at a swing High and a break below the 135.00 (support) could have turned into resistence, but waiting for the break saves the day again. As James16 says, "It always will".
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
I'll increase the tight stop to 50 pip on the weeklies and adjust my position size accordingly. I may still get out below that amount if the break isn't acting like it suppose to.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Resistance seems to be strong at both 2.01 and 2.02 with multiple bar lows and closes.
Plan so far is to enter above 2.0 at the 50% fib line. Stop loss will be set below current bar low as long as it closes above the 2.0 line.
I'm still new to this and demoing but it seems like a decent trade to be taking and it has space all the way up to 2.01 for some easy pips.
My reasoning behind the stop placement is that it has already tested the 61.8 fib, the 2.00 line, so if it breaks the current bar low in...
It's an aggressive approach Tipers, that doesn't mean its wrong. Pin Bars are not Pin Bars until they break, so I tend to play retracements after they break.
Your plan looks good for an aggressive trade.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Hey Jaroo if I missed the entry,and this will be retested,is in this case another opportunity to enter in this setup,because you say that if will act like that it will be a confirmation of the setup.
I'm in the learning curve so I want to know all the possibility to enter a trade
Many thanks
Yes, this is a possibility on many high quality setups. Price tends to retest the entry (break) or a S/R level near the break. But the momentum maybe so strong, which is inherit in high quality PA setups, it may just run to the moon. But on some (not all).
Also this retest may happen over days on higher time frames (like the Daily/Weekly). Check some past Daily/Weely PA (A+) trades and you can see this happening.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
The GBPAUD trade i posted earlier trigged and I've closed half at 1:1 RR and have the other half running at 110 pips up (75 risk). Stop at BE. Expecting to push straight up to 2.02 and I'll move stops to 2.01 or so
AUSUSD triggered and hovering around BE
GBPUSD up 90 pips
Those aggressive plays do pay off at times when managed correctly.
Very nice Tipers.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Went a guided fly-fishing trip down the Cle-Elum river. As we jostled down the river the guide must have shouted. "relax" over a hundred times. I thought I should apply this to my trading, so I typed in Bold on my trading screen," Relax under pressure".
Staying relaxed can help us process the information we are receiving while we are in a position objectively as we do not want to develop a bias.
I also hope to enjoy a nice profit as the GPD/USD breaks down.
Best regards
Dale
Thanks Dale.
I've been back testing those Double Inside Bars and they still amaze me.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Thank you Jim! I owe a lot to James16 and pros like you in this forum.
On this specific trade, you will notice that it all started with a malformed PIN. I didn't feel brave enough to take that one. However, the second Bearish Outside Bar pretty much confirmed the trend change. So there.
Ken
Thanks Ken.
Nice trade and good observation of Price.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
This is a nice one. 1st TP hit, no risk on table now. Would like to see it break through 0.86, but...
Josh
Hey josh, could you post a 4 hour Eur/Gbp? (or anyone) Looks like a juicy Bearish 4 PB to compliment the daily PB. (Sorry I can post charts right now) Missed that one. lol
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Pros:
- Confluence with the 50% Fib from the last swing high on 18/05.
- Descending trendline.
- With current trend.
Cons:
- Maybe not the best formed Pin around. Would have preferred a slightly longer nose and you will have to go back to 2006 on the weekly for any significant PPZ.
May have some trouble just below the break but will have to see how hard it breaks.
Looks good gang.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
well i dont know what ive done except return a couple of emails but i appreciate your kind words. im not very good at handling these kind of posts but im as humbled and honored by them today as i was 5 years ago when the first one was posted.
i really dont know what the big deal is about me and this thread but i cant argue with the fact that a lot of people seem to get something out of it.
its an honor to have you here,
jim
It's more then just a couple emails, Jim. Its your ability to empathize with us, to guides us with your straight talk, no BS (or rants lol), and your overall concern with how we go about this business. (check your earlier posts on this thread).
And you don't have to do this. You can close up shop and be on your merry way, never to be heard from again. But you don't. Shows you genuinely care. And we here, feel that and see that from you.
It's pretty cool and contagious.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Here's that 4 hour PB ( in green) on the Eur/Gbp (other feeds showed a 4 hour BEOB).
The blue is the Daily PB from Friday and it's not the best looking but the size is great. Then we get a 4 hour PB on Monday , is it an A+ 4 hour PB? No. But it does compliment the Friday PB.
Tight stop and lets see how she breaks. I missed this one but the amount of draw down after the break was ZERO.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Yes that's basicly it. Double Inside Bars; Triangles or Wedges on lower time frames, but not always. I like the small risk factor buildt in. Lets see how this one breaks. Daily PPZ level is .8650.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Quick question...in your backtesting of the double IB's ...have you ben looking at the break of the original mother candle or a break of the last IB?...thanks
Jeev
"Last IB" is more aggressive with the mother candle as confirmation. A more conservative approach is the break of the middle candle with the mother candle as confirmation. In the case of the 4 hour eur/gbp, the break of the daily PPZ of .8650 was the trigger.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
(for me at least) Nice to see PA initiated the downmove simultaneously on smaller TFs (off 38.2 fib of Daily PB):
M15 dojis/PB, M30 doji, H1 small BEOB. (FxPro MT4)
Bearish PA on lower time frames that agree with bearish PA on higher time frames is always a good thing.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Just wanted to leave a quick note before disapearing for a while.
I have been an avid reader/part time poster on the thread for the last 2 1/2 years and feel it's time to drop off for a while.
Jim, thanks so much for your help both here and in the PF and also a big thanks to Mike and everyone else who has been so giving of their time
I will still be hunting for my A+ setups but feel it's time to move on from the forum and minimise outside influences in order to become even more picky
take care all and thanks again
FXP...
You gotta drop by every now and then . . . I've always liked your posts, FXP.
If you got to, you got to. Just don't be a stranger, friend.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
That thread is on my list to read but haven't touched it yet. Just wondered. I have done some backtesting on doublle inside bars (I've been calling them 2IBs...) I like the results too... have only been playing them with entry on first bar break (as opposed to 2nd or 3rd bar break)...
Josh
The Daly Inside Bar Setup is a method of getting into a large trend by using a very small risk, the Time of Day and splitting a position to reduce the risk even futher. It's a very simple approach, though the thread can make it more complicated then it really is. We can use other Price Action formation with DIBS instead of IBs, i.e. PBs, OBs, etc., but the IBs offers a smaller risk placements by its smaller construction. An important key to DIBS is to let it run forever. Well, in the most perfect world we would. lol
The Double Inside Bars (to me) can be used with DIBS but also as a Price Action formation with confluences like any other PA formation, i.e., PBs, OBs, etc.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Hello Jarroo,
I have read threw the dibs method awhile ago and really liked it.But with my bad habit of not sticking to anything I moved on.My question is, do you still trade it?I can see how this would be a "robust method" as peter crown would say.Just curious on your results.
Due to my crazy schedule at times, I haven't been able to trade many DIBS trades. Lining up higher time frame trends with a DIBS trades have been very rewarding as of late.
Mainly the higher time frame picky PA setups (which Rules, by the way lol) have been my first love and more intuned with my current schedule.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
The Daly Inside Bar Setup is a method of getting into a large trend by using a very small risk, the Time of Day and splitting a position to reduce the risk even futher.
so DIBS is sorta like a scalping sized stop loss thats backed up by daily and 4hr setups?
i did one of them on gbpusd last night, take half off 2:1 then jsut let the rest run, keeps my lot size high relative to my account cos the SL is only 20-30pips
Yes, sorta. But the Time of Day is also a key factor as Peter Crowns would advise.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
i read the dibs thread many months ago. but like you i favor j16. can i rephrase my question? if 0600 is "best time of day" for dibs, then what is the gmt time for london open? is it 0800 gmt? just looking for a simple answer here & then i will shut up, thx.
0600 GMT is 1:00 AM EST which is the "Open of the Day" for a DIBS trade.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
I've attached a larger 4 hour chart with some support lines/even numbers labeled. I believe we're in a downtrend and currently at a swing high. Lower high's and lower lows etc. The bar hasn't closed yet but it is taking the form of a dbhlc with the latest inside bar.
Prices are currently at 23.6 fib with the 50 fib lining up with the ppz of 2.01500 (quite a way down).
Anything wrong with this analysis? once it breaks past the 2.02800 it seems like it should retrace to easily 1:1 RR and possibly hit the 2.01500 support and spring back up or...
Looks Good Tipers, but let's start the Weekly and Daily PPZ levels and see how they are reflected on the 4 hour time frame.
First impressions of the Weekly and Daily charts show a lot consolidation so we know that Price is going to be a bit choppy.
Let's put some bold round numbers on the charts near PPZ levels and see what we got.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Firstly bjohnl, I'm new here and just working things out so bear that in mind with what I say. I'm no old timer like mbqb11, jarroo or james16 himself.
It really is situational. Depending on what I think the trade is going to do, I make a plan, before pulling the trigger. And then I do my best to stick to it. So I have a level marked out where I would look to go to BE or take profit. Last couple of months I had been moving to BE and taking profit too quickly getting small winners. Then along came a loser and wiped a lot of my hard earned gains...
"James16:
THIS IS CRITICAL.
WE MUST LEARN TO:
Notice a strong s/r area just beyond our pa if it exists.
Know that if we trade into it we had better be prepared for a quick reversal that could give us a loss if we are not prepared.
if we know its there, we have several choices.
1. get out when it gets there for a small profit.
2. take a small partial profit and move the remainder to BE.
3. stay in with your total position hoping for a break and move your stop to BE.
4. Dont enter until the level has been broken."
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Looks Good Tipers, but let's start the Weekly and Daily PPZ levels and see how they are reflected on the 4 hour time frame.
First impressions of the Weekly and Daily charts show a lot consolidation so we know that Price is going to be a bit choppy.
Let's put some bold round numbers on the charts near PPZ levels and see what we got.
So we go down to the 4 hour time frame with our Weekly and Daily PPZ levels, also the Fib levels you have off the Daily. We have the Double Inside bar or just a IB at a sorta swing high.
To be honest, its a tough looking chart. Nothing really stays out or is easily definable. The 2IB or IB broke and the 4 hour PPZ lines up with the 38.2 Fib. Looks like Price has a good chance of heading there. IMO, there's easier pairs to trade.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Hmm yeah I see your point. I think one of my main flaws in seeing this trade was that I was too zoomed in and didn't consider the whole picture. I think you're right in saying it will hit the 38.2 easy enough and will move to BE there and take half profit. This isn't even a 1 RR trade so it probably isn't worth the risk when there is so much traffic around it.
I'm sorta hoping I do lose a trade sometime soon, I'm 5/5 in all my daily and below trades(and up 6.5% in two days (demo). Think it might be getting to my head and jumping into all these...
No problem Tipers, glad I could be of help.
And don't ever say that again "I'm sorta hoping I do lose a trade . . " because guess what, you will. Loss is a 4 letter word, so we don't say them.
See how much cleaner the Aud/Usd and Flem26's chart of the Eur/Cad look complared to the Gpb/Aud.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
I see that some discussion has been going on regarding the eur/cad daily pin bar. I'd like to ask questions about this particular set-up and about the pin bar just to the left of the current pin bar.
(Note: this is my first chart post. I am not looking to place a trade . . . I'm far from placing my first trade. I'm simply doing a bit of studying.)
First Pin Bar (Black Arrow)
PROS:
* Pin bar has a lot of "space," as mbqb11 described in a video posted on the guest area of the private forum
* Grazed a heavy S+R area of 1.5350
* Open...
Not a long post at all. Well thought out, to the point and it looks like you have been doing your homework as well. Very Nice.
Yes I agree the second PB is a better choice due to size and form, yet the first one did work out. Shows you the power of Price Action at a great location, 1.5500 (Daily and Weekly PPZ level). The traffic is a concern but a hard break could solve that. lol
Can I ask you where your 1st target would be?
Edit: And what Icehocey77 said too. lol
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Honestly, I did not even take "targets" into consideration. LOL! Shows how ignorantly new I am. Nonetheless, by looking at the chart, the Daily shows very little in way of S+R levels in the short term. Perhaps a target at 1.5630-60 would hold, but I don't want to trade based on a "Perhaps."
So, I am not sure with targets. I guess this current pin bar would be not be a good one.
I didn't mean to put you on the spot Jay. But yes, very good eye. It's always something to look for if the decision to take a setup arises. It's not a bad setup but there are better ones. picky picky.
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Plot a hoz line at 1.56350 and scroll back in time a little. Seems to be a fairly strong resitance/support. Zoom out to weekly and you'll see it also is strong there too. T1 = 1.56350, T2 = 365 expo ma ~ 1.57500
Looks like bullish divergence forming on daily. Pin bar has broken and is in a retrace so you could look for a possible entry at a fib, giving you a tighter stop
Very well said Tipers.
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Ryan trades IBs with a totally different approach. DIBS "founding father" (Peter Crown) mentioned that there is more to trading IBs than just the rules he described. That's why many people failed with DIBS - purely mechanical approach does not work well.
Perhaps, Ryan's approach can add the angle which could make IBs more profitable (this is off-topic as far as J16 is concerned!!): read his post carefully as he described well what he is looking for with IBs.
DIBS seems to be similar to something called "Big Ben" or "London breakout" -...
There are many different camps about filtering a DIBS trade. And I'm sure Ryan's is with the trend and I agree with that. Looking at the Daily and even the weekly trends are a must.
Also applying higher time frame Price Action, Confluences, etc. discussed on this thread, have made many of my DIBS trades profitable.
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On the chart posted below there is a well formed 4hr pin. My question is when looking at taking this as a trade, should I take into account the bar lows to the left indicated by the white circle?
Thanks.
K.I.S.S.
Absolutely KF. That's what's probably holding it down along with other previous Highs and Lows.
(sorry can't post my own charts)
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Thats a good idea, I was actually thinking of making a list and putting it into the background of my desktop, think I'll do that today. Btw, who is Jim's son?
You'll have to read a few posts back from there.
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Painful memories...
I remember sitting on my hands when price hit 8850, touched the mouse, sat on my hands again, touch the mouse again...etc... Infested my brain with some nonsense post, which read that fiber is aiming at 150. Never traded.
Reading forums can poison your brain sometimes....lol
will we finally break this ej - 3 week trend over the next 2-3 days and get continuation-south on nu...
.
While you where sitting on your hands I was thinking "Mark is all over this one". lol
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Jarroo, am I thinking right on this as a short due to PPZ and fib #'s?
Yes, you were thinking right on this one, Ryan. High momentum can cut through a lot of traffic. ( I and rustyjeff advised about the traffic on this setup.)
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Oh right on, a little guy trading, that's pretty cool. How's he doing, does he post here at all? I guess he wouldn't need to much, considering he probably just has to walk into the next room for help. Good stuff
No, he's not posting . . Yet. How cool would that be.
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I know you are headed back to the batcave Rac but I appreciate your posts today. I have been going back over many of your charts for months and have done pretty well with demoing the 4 hr TF (I trade money almost exclusively off daily/weekly charts) with this model------- Combine PA with the 50/61.8 and the 150/365 ema. Look for a seam for price to fit through and run. Once I get comfortably proficient with this method, I'll add it to my live acct then start practicing entry on the 4 hr using confluence and watching the lower tf's for price action...
I agree. Thanks Mark.
"Look for a seam for Price to fit through and run" . . or bounce.
Nice line, KF.
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On the chart posted below there is a well formed 4hr pin. My question is when looking at taking this as a trade, should I take into account the bar lows to the left indicated by the white circle?
Thanks.
K.I.S.S.
I'm in on this one KF. Looks like Price found a hole in the seam, momentum will do that. Drawdown after the break about 12 pips. Sweet.
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Glad you found your way on this one. Go make some $ bro! Just keep your mouthpiece installed and your helmet on. I missed out as I am preparing for a court case for tomorrow. If I win I'll be able to add some more $ to my live acct. A real shame to have to take a sizeable company to court for money you have already earned.
K.I.S.S.
That was my problem I always forgot to put my helmet on. lol.
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thats kind of you old buddy but let me be honest. not modest just honest.
first thanks for giving me a segway. i always use the old timers for segways because they know im not yelling at them. they also know i like to vent from time to time so here i go. after my internet problems all day im itching to rant for some reason.
master of what?
master of a few silly bars, several years learning simple s/r, never allowing large losses, a decent sized account that allows me to be real real picky AND TRADING WITH A BUSINESS LIKE APPROACH WHICH MEANS...
I used to wait anxiously for a James16 chart, a new opportunity to learn and study the J16 way. Now I can almost predict the charts you may post on the thread before you post them and key points about them. I'm not bragging, actually I'm proud of myself on how far I come in learning the materal.
But these posts "or rants" and the many like it, have probably made more of a difference in my trading then a James16 chart. And I know it has for many many others.
I think your are coming closer to answering your signature then you think, Jim.
Jim
(don't get me wrong I still love a James16 chart, for sure. )
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Nothin' doin' tonight for me. Took final profits on EUR/GBP at 0.85 today. Probably too early, but got my 2R. Boy, I love price action. And to humor Jarroo... PRICE ACTION RULES!
Josh
Absol . . . freaking . . lutely.
Patience pays big time.
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I kept asking Jarroo a year ago how did he see what I couldn't see, and how could he do (e.g. pass on a B trade) what I could not. He said "practice, practice, practice, and it will come" (J16 kept saying the same thing from Page 1 too). I followed that advice and "it" (the "A-ha!" moment) did come. THANK YOU, Jim, Jarroo and Mike (and other who helped me)!
P.S. A couple of losing days in a row when I took B trades, and a couple of more losing days in a row when I took B trades, and yet few more losing days in a row where I took B trades...
This is great 007! You kept going and going where others would just give up. Yet you Persevered. Just keep at it and it becomes easier. Almost boring.
I know, when I first heard that about profitable traders being bored, I couldn't believe it. But now I understand what they mean.
Great job . More "A-ha" moments await you.
Jim
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Was wondering how you double inside bar testing was going?
Was wanting to do some further testing myself this weekened but now have family comitments.
Best regards
Dale
Very good. As you have said it seems to indicate a pause in activity or such. The reasons being . . . who knows. But lining them up with supporting confluences does seem to give them more wieght.
The testing continues.
Jim
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By break performance, do you me strong break and a pullback prior to initiating a position? Do you only look for Double Inside bars on 4hour charts and above? Many thanks,
Z
By break performance I mean how hard, strong, steady, robustly, etc (or the opposite adjectives)
of the break of Price at our trigger or entry position.
That could be a highly confluenced Double Inside bar on the 4 hour or swing high BEOB on the Daily or a doji with a capricorn head and butterfly wings on the 16 hour chart.
I feel all setups, be it J16 PA or others, have to show some sign of strong movement at its trigger. Price Action with supportive confluences (the A+ trade) shows this strong momentum movement . . . time and time again.
Pullbacks or retests (for me) confirms the setup and validates the entry or break.
Double Inside Bars can be on any time frame. They do not show up that often, so a fast time frame is need to see more of them. The 4 hour time fits well for frequency and its not that low compared to the Hourly or 30min , etc.
Hope this helps
Jim
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I think this is a very valid observation and shows that you're really onto something and thinking about stuff the right way.
Nice post Tia. Your comments are pretty much dead on about different styles of managing trades.
The higher the quality of the setup, the easier they are to manage. Stop losses are best placed at the top/bottom on a given PA setup. The key qualifier "is this an A++ PA setup?" The recent PBs on EURCAD and USDCAD were easily not taken because they were not A+ trades. Could they have been take and managed tightly? Absolutely. ( Probably would have ended up as break even trades or a small loss if I had taken them.)
So, I guess I would answer kean's question . . is there any point to the stop loss being at the end of a Pin Bar . .Yes, depends on the quality of the Pin Bar i.e. location and supporting confluences. If it does not quality as a A+ setup then managing it tightly is a must in my book. (imo)
Jim
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I wanted to add my thoughts on 4H inside bars just to help anyone new looking in. Dale has been trading a lot longer than I have and knows all this stuff already but I hope he doesn't mind me using his post as a springboard for some points. He's also referring to 4H double inside bars which Jarro is also testing and which seem to work well. I wanted to add something about single IBs on the 4H timeframe in general.
Firstly, I am not a big 4H trader but there a few things I've learnt from the other guys.
Inside Bars are kinda tricky and a lot...
I was just about to post this chart when I saw this post Tia. Inside Bars as with any other PA formations, can be traded as long as they meet our strict criteria of location and supportive confluences. Again being very picky is the key.
Nice Dale. Do you find that since Double Inside bars are not that frequent, its best to just take them as is or do you have a set of parameters that have to be met? From what I've seen, the "as is " approach is not that bad.
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Agreed Jim. And I didn't mean to imply they were untradeable at all. In fact I am testing various types of IB right now.
I remember when I first came across this thread I wanted to trade all the bars, all timeframes and in all locations.... It finally started to click with me when I focussed on one type of bar at a time and built up slowly. I just wanted to put that out there for anyone that was new and going through what I was when I started.
Those I4Bs are great. The I46Bs are even better...
Understood Tia. Your posts are a great read and has helped many new and old traders, more then you probably know.
Keep up the great work.
Jim
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With the recent discussion on IB, I'll like to give my opinions on how i view them and by all means... please comment on it.
I tend to look for PB or other PA on Daily chart, then go down to 4H chart to look for any PA confluence.
Then I wait for breakout in 1H. However, I wait for candle close out of breakout lvl for confirmation.
From backtest
Daily :
4H : IB IMO, is like a boost to momentum.
1H : I highly doubt I would be able to hold the position to the next day due to my tight trade management. (Please ignore the Fibo...
It's great approach. I've seen many use it quite successfully. They use higher PA as an . . dare I say . . . indicator.
Ex. The Weekly PB on the G/U. So we would look for bearish PA on the Daily, 4hour and even the houly as a "confluence" with the Weekly bearish PA (PB).
Nice LS.
Jim
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I want to tread lightly out of the respect I have for the other traders here, and especially Dr James16. I’m focused on the markets, open of the week. I will use this post to elaborate in a bit.
I almost missed these trades myself but meant to post the charts prior to entry.
Reply better soon,
Ok, I can hardly keep my eyes open right now, Trading on the west coast can mean some late hours.
I want to reply a bit tonight, then make further improvements in the morning.
Actually the above is a lead in. Prior to taking any entry,...
Thanks Dale, this is very helpful.
Now go get some sleep, buddy. lol
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well I give up on this one, there will be much more better setups I'm sure, don't want to lose even a penny more then planed even if it collapses as a rock after I get out.
all the best to you jarroo brother, I'm out lol
That's how we roll datogio. Break even on one half and a small loss on the other. That's right, even if it falls like a rock.
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if u draw a line a few pips above 1.63 on the four hour and 1hr u will see a few instances of s+r... my sell stops are at 1.6290's and then possible hurdles although minor are in red...
Thanks wgm. I was looking for a hard break through that 1.6300 to confirm my short trade. Strong level in an uptrend.
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Hi Jaroo,
This is exactly where I am now at with it, I am now looking at a full stop loss for A+ set ups and much less for the non A+ set ups that I take.
Kean
Obviously we want to only take A+ trades, that is the heart of the J16 way. But I agree, there are setups that are not A+ but in the "A" catagory that are worth a hard break look.
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I was just about to post this chart when I saw this post Tia. Inside Bars as with any other PA formations, can be traded as long as they meet our strict criteria of location and supportive confluences. Again being very picky is the key.
nice one jarroo, iv been waiting to short this pair for over a week now but i missed my chance today concentrating on other pairs!maybe next time
jon
EDIT: i see your 1.6300 is getting a hammering!!
Should have waited for the break of the 1.6300. #4 of James16's "This is Critical". That would have been a smarter play.
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1.6300 wasn't expressed as a strong support on D2 chart, that's why i decided to enter the trade before it was broken, but the round numbers should always be on the close watch for possible trouble, that's the key and im happy i didn't ignore it, I lost on that one ass well but I'm satisfied anyway with the trade management.
And I'm sorry if I somehow manipulated your decision process Jarroo
lol. We managed it perfectly in my book. It could have easly ran through the 1.6300. Since it didn't, we got out.
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datogio,
nothing to feel sorry for.. jarroo is highly experienced.
he won't take a trade just because someone said so.
He is picky with his trades, much much more than we are.
He takes trades if he feels odds are stacked for him.
AND he knows losses are part of this business, & he manages losses by minimizing them as much as possible.
He knows these, WE all know these.
Next trade awaits us..
I like showing live trades (for good or bad) for people to see a different look. To put into action what we talk about here. People can learn from it, mold it to their own style or disregard it all together.
I wish I was available to do the Eur/Jpy Weekly I46B in real time. lol That would have been cool. But the Gpb/Usd trade was probably more beneficial, because it was a break even or small loss trade.
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Yep, and a follow up post now that I am back to my computer.
What this means is simple. Ranges are decreasing over X amount of bars, which means price is consolidating, which means the likelihood to see a bigger breakout move increases(in general). So the idea is to find and get in on the breakout move where price finally breaks out of the decreasing daily range trap
Mike
This weekly breakout (Eur/Jpy Weekly I10+B) is cutting through this mess (traffic in green) like butter.
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Ooo damn I've been doing exams for the past few days and missed this trade. Just a question on your exit Jarroo, have you got a level you're looking at? The 50 fib of the recent move on daily lines up with 133.0 and the 61.8 fib is at around 131.5.
I'm considering a late entry if we see a retest of the 135.0 level
The 133.50 shows a decent PPZ level. I'll look for bullish PA on the Daily at this level for a possible exit or confirming bearish PA to stay with the ride. Retrace PA is not a bad way to go at strong PPZ levels (135.00) if this down trend continues.
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Hi Jarro
There is a PB on H1.
Would you consider this as possible exit?
The is a great point novice. It shows that you want to manage Price Action on the same time frame that it was taken. The I10+B was taken on the Weekly so I want to view my Targetss, PPZs, possible exits, etc., on the Weekly. I will drop down a time frame and view PA on that level for a more conservative approach. In this case, the Daily.
The Pin Bar on the Hourly would not cause me to exit even if it broke hard. Because in may hit its "targets" (in green) and then contiune down with the higher time frame trend or PA. The same is true with the 4 hour time frame.
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I really hope you can do a demo video on this, like managing the G/U and E/J Trade. It will be really helpful.
I am in process try to minimize the loss even I am comfortable by selecting good PA at certain location.
Maybe you can show a video showing us the process of how you try to manage the GU and EJ trade.
I was in the GU trade today by but having draw down of 100 pips before going green for me, but I really don't feel comfortable with that when I see the big draw down.
I want to learn the skill from you on the trade...
A video would be fun, but as sChaos has posted these videos by James16 and Mike in the Guest section:http://www.james16group.us/Guests/guestmaterial.html are very good. (also in the PF, I'm a life time member)
I don't think I could come close to the great job these guys do.
Also, the James16 "This is Critical" plays an important role once a high quality PA setup is determined.
Managing a trade once your 1st target is hit is an individual thing. I tend to turn towards a more long term approach.
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I am not Jarroo but thought I needed myself to say this...
100 pips will never freak you out if it's within good MM criteria.
Jarroo does have a great edge over many others in that he can manage his trades exceptionally well, and it's good that you want to follow his trail,
However make sure you don't look at him as your savior from this so called "DRAW DOWN FEAR"
You must understand that the strategy does not count for risk/reward ratios and hence may point towards a certain degree of significant risk when...
Greats points in this ghous, very nice.
I'm always learning and improving on each and very trade I take. And so is every one else.
The difference between me and others is that I just been practising at this a little long then most. Once people put in the time, practise and find their own style that there comfortable with, they could easily pass me and I could be learning from them.
Concentrating on then A+ trade is the key to everything in my view, it makes every thing so much easier (i.e. managing , targets, etc.)
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Sorry for the delay - obviously we have had a move ongoing the last few minutes, and 134 has been taken out rather easily. Actually this is a nice real-time look for the readers at the various inputs/thoughts. Jarroo, chime in here on how you handled this one off of the weekly/daily chart, and I think we can show people something here through the last series of posts. We've both made nice trades here, but in opposite directions, as Chaos mentions.
LOL - Yes, I am am live - I've been at this a while
The Weekly Eur/Jpy I10+B was a great trade in every way. Nice strong break, obvious targets where in plain veiw (135.00 and 133.50), etc., to make this as easy as it gets. (Chart) Taking those targets, once they hit, was a no brainer. Making this a perfect example of a classic J16 trade.
I, on the other hand, am taking a more long term approach. Which may not be the right way to go. lolol. I have my stop loss above the 135.00. The deal you accept with long term trading is the huge pips swing that you have to endure, which could vanish on a single move.
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Very nice.
There's nothing like it. When you size up a potential setup (the pickier the better, obviously) and you say "let's see how this breaks". The PPZs are there, the round numbers are there, the targets are there etc. and you play it tight.
And then it breaks with zero draw down . . .you gotta love it.
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The 4 hour Eur/Jpy PB in blue would not be rated as an A+ PB. But it is at a swing low with the confluence of the 133.50 PPZ level. The break however, was A+. 1st half 30+/2nd half at break even. No drawdown after the break.
Happy birthday thread and its mother James16. lol
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Jarroo, I was all over this one in demo and learning. Still trying to figure out the best way to manage the trade but I closed half at 30 pips then moved my stop to break even. Then next I closed 15% at 50 pips, next is 15% at 70 pips and then let the rest ride. Am I at least kind thinking in the right direction?
I played the pin bar earlier on today but sold out way to quick on it. Practice practice eh!!
Happy Birthday thread!!!!
It comes down to the quality of the set up. The Eur/Jpy and Gbp/Jpy 4 hour PBs are not A+ setups. But their locations and confluences are pretty good. (I forgot to mention the fib levels on both).
So we have to manage these trades very carefully or ignore them totally. How strong they break is a good confirmation for me.
I don't like using fixed pip targets, I'm not saying that they are wrong for you to use. Let's look at previous S/R levels, and/or previous Highs/Lows, and see where Price may be heading.
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It comes down to the quality of the set up. The Eur/Jpy and Gbp/Jpy 4 hour PBs are not A+ setups. But their locations and confluences are pretty good. (I forgot to mention the fib levels on both).
So we have to manage these trades very carefully or ignore them totally. How strong they break is a good confirmation for me.
I don't like using fixed pip targets, I'm not saying that they are wrong for you to use. Let's look at previous S/R levels, and/or previous High/Lows, and see where Price may be heading.
The 135.00 is a strong PPZ level on the Daily, so Price could be heading back up there. More recent is the 134.00 level which Price has already reached (the traffic in green) This could be it for Price and could now reverse.
Since we are already in profit and its now a free trade, let's relax and see what happens. This is just how I see things.
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The 135.00 is a strong PPZ level on the Daily, so Price could be heading back up there. More recent is the 134.00 level which Price has already reached (the traffic in green) This could be it for Price and could now reverse.
Since we are already in profit and its now a free trade, let's relax and see what happens. This is just how I see things.
2nd half stopped out at break even. 1st half 31 pips/2nd breakeven. Not bad.
There are many different ways you could have managed this trade while still limiting risk. Placing your stop loss not at breakeven but -10 pips away from your entry thus netting you +21 pips. Or -31 pips away from the entry netting you zero pips.
This positioning can be very rewarding especially when it runs to the moon. Or even when it doesn't.
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Well at least I am thinking in the right direction because I have all the PPZ's marked correctly and I took in consideration the fibs and the fact the PB was at an even number. This is how I setup my TP levels. But your right lets see how it goes.
One of problems I do have though is how does one confirm a PPZ break before it is to late? How to catch it early enough?
Yes, your on the right path. Being very picky makes trading a whole lot easier.
Place a limit order or buy/sell stop above/below is how I catch the hard breaks, if that's what your asking.
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2nd half stopped out at break even. 1st half 31 pips/2nd breakeven. Not bad.
There are many different ways you could have managed this trade while still limiting risk. Placing your stop loss not at breakeven but -10 pips away from your entry thus netting you +21 pips. Or -31 pips away from the entry netting you zero pips.
This positioning can be very rewarding especially when it runs to the moon. Or even when it doesn't.
Many times on A+ trades Price will retest the break or entry. On this Eur/Jpy 4 hour PB Price did just that.(Chart on the Hourly) This non A+ trade is sure acting like one.
I hear all the time that some people will place their stop loss after a run of Price not at break even but at +1 pip. They do this to get some postive pipage if Price reverses on them. I like -10 or -15, once the 1st half has been profitable, for this very reason of Price retesting the break.
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I don't think anyone knew where it would go, how many people it would help, how man lives it would change. How amazing to think it began with that one casual moment.
I was trying to think of what to to post and I thought the best thing would be to write a list of what makes this place so great.
1) A simple, easy to learn method that can be traded in both trending and consolidating markets. All you need to know to be profitable is here.
2) The efforts of James16 himself in boiling down all...
Great post Tia. Post 1 material.
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Good morning...
My first chart on this thread. Encouraged by the atmosphere and supremeChaos...
4H, this suppose to be a pinbar?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gov
G'day rh674
I've only been around here for a little while but I'll have a crack at answering your question.
The pin bar itself looks great; the location not so good. The bar to it's left has a high at almost the same level, two bars prior is a bullish PB, combination of 1.1300 PPZ and the fibo 50 just below.
(Also note the Fibo's on the last swing are upside down)
But using THIS IS CRITICAL (post 15568) there are options.
IMO not a great setup though.
I was considering this as a daily trade, but like Josh (Jduester) mentioned a few posts ago,...
Some great points on this Gov. It is definitely in some traffic (consolidation).
Just some of my views.
PB itself is real good in size and shape.
The location was real good, off a Daily PPZ 1.13600 and confluences with the 61.8. (Daily chart)
To me it was a great setup, but not a trade that I would have high expectation with due to the consolidation. So I would place the entry just below the trigger and see how it breaks. (4 Hour chart)
Nice. A hard break with no draw down. An easy 30+ pips on the 1st / break even on the 2nd half and a chance to run to the moon.
(30min chart)
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the usdcad daily pin is of good shape (size wrt to previous bar), has space to run, location is good in my opinion.....
also wit the trend
has 61.8fib confluence, 365 ema and rsi divergence...
as u always say, watch how she breaks
this is one im watching for today
cheers jarroo
btw , there r questions i wld hav asked u but everytime u post a chart, i always find my answer there...thnx
Thanks squeezy. It has potential. The Pin bar is not text book and the size is not bad, with the Daily trend too. Nice chart showing confluences.
Should be fun to see how she breaks. (if she breaks).
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Thank you, Gov! Gov's answer, I had printed out and trying to chew it and digest it so as to not to enter a trade within traffic.
Also notice 4fun's chart.
Want to thank Jarroo. Jarroo had iilustrated the point that I totally missed out. I had thougt the pinbar is formed by 3 bars. So the entry I set was on the small tiny inside bar. At that point, Jarroo would have banked 30pips and BE the second half. And meantime I was suffering some loss.
Anyway, the USD/CAD position has been closed out with few loss that...
Glad I could help, rh. Sorry I usually highlight the PA in question.
(Pin Bar in blue)
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jst saw ur post jarroo
heres mine
im worried bout the ppz just below, but it has space .... imo
seems u dont hav dis ppz on urs....comments j
i think she shld break well enuff, are you in usdcad ....jst got triggered
Hey squeezy. My PPZs seem to match yours just fine.
The green area on the 4 hour Eur/Gbp PB is a target. Taking some off the table here is a good decsion. Price is runnnig through it, so any sign of pull back and the 1st half is banked. We could be heading for .8500.
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Looks like you picked another winner! I passed on this because it isn't technically a pinbar (close higher than open). It just goes to show that it doesn't have to be a technically perfect bar so long as the location is correct. Thanks for posting this chart, I feel I have learned from it.
No, it's technically Pin Bar TN. The open and close are within the previous bar. Having a close lower then the open is preferred on a bearish PB, but not a game stopper.
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Awesome Tom, most just can not shake that need to trade, and won't listen. It takes a few hard smacks on the ass before they realize James knows what he is talking about and then they do it the easier way.
You might never ever want to move to the lower timeframes. Many don't. Nothing wrong with that! The process is that after you can learn to trade the higher timeframes with confidence and consistency. You can then move down to say the 4hr/1hr if that is your desire for more opportunities and put it through the same process that got you to be...
I think he said the same thing to me years ago. lol
I get PMs all the time from people asking how they can improve and get better with Price Action the J16 way. Listening and acting on the advise and guidance from Mike is the best way to go.
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I took 23 pips on the 1st half and stopped out on 2nd half.
If this was a A+ PB I may give it more leeway. I know . ."Why are you taking anything less jarroo?" I put this one in the A catagory and I manage it very carfully. It better run hard or I'm out.
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It is a funny thing - we can hear all day long from those who have traveled the road, but geeze, how many actually *listen* - not many ever do. Those that eventually listen tend to need a good beating or two to get the ears turned on for real.
It makes me think that we never really 'grow up', that we remain in the teenage syndrome forever. You know how it goes, Mom and Dad suddenly become stupid control freaks and we know better for ourselves. Ultimately we get burned often enough, or badly enough to realize that they were not joking.
Fast forward...
Great post StoragePro. lol. Sadly that's how we learn sometime. Once bitten, twice shy. Or 10 times bitten, never shy. lol
I should have highlighted and put in bold the key works . ." acting on the advise and guidance from Mike is the best way to go."
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I also took this, it was hard for me to take to because it was sub A+, but I did the same thing/ managed it carefully & put stups to BE after 20 pips. Got stopped out but wanted to be in in case it ran down.
I need to be more careful with these but knowing this material really puts you in the position of knowing what price will most liekly do it is great!
You got it. This is it. Right here dmc. Wait until you get stopped out to the pip and then it runs 300 pips. When this happens, it means you have arrived.
Great job.
Jim
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1st silly question J, hw many pips below the pin did u use
i used 10, but it looked kind of far from the pin and about 10 pip or so from 1st trouble area
i ended closing 1st half for 7pips or so, moved sl to -33 pips away....now at be after convincingly breaking 1st trouble area....sure u took 30 pips on the 1st half....thinking of holding this trade based on the pin forming on the daily...
wat do u think
still in usdcad wit drawdown, didnt reach my 30 pips tp on 1st half....reduced my risk to right eye area, waitng to see hw the bar closes
Generally I will use 8 to 10 on the Daily, 4 to 6 on the 4 hour. Depends on the setup, traffic, etc. Looks like you managed it great squeezy.
Taking 30 pips off the first momentum break is not a hard and fast rule that I follow. The same with my 30 to 40 pip stop loss. I've taken a -2pip loss when I saw Price not acting like it suppose to after a break. The more you practise the easier it becomes. And most importantly, the higher the quality of the setup (A++) it becomes way easier.
Jim
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Since we've had a lot of first time posters signing in yesterday/today, I thought I'd say a few words about analyzing potential trades. The single best and most efficient way to improve your ability to recognize a good trade from a bad one is to look at a chart and see what you like and don't like about it. The best way to find out if you are right or wrong (and hence, learn) is to post it in this thread. If you go through my early posts, this is how I started. I often got gently shot down on setups I thought were great but the seniors would explain...
Great post Josh.
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I can't give you the answer on where time went Jim,because I can't figure it out myself.But I can say you are living life how all of us should be.Going for your dreams and not letting anyone keep you from them!Believing in yourself and the goodness of people.And the main thing "giving",you help a lot of people around here.Thanks again
Man, I wish I had said that.
Ditto jlmac.
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Hey Jarroo, I just was reading through todays post and really enjoyed how you and some others took care of biz with that daybar on U/C yesterday damn slick really! Josh mentioned it but I liked it too
Thanks 4fun. My style is close to James16's way of trading. And how a setup breaks determines if I stay with it or not.
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Agree.
The reason I like this pinbar is because of the trend. Also, last week's pinbar had a similar type of senario.
If it breaks the pin, triggering my trade, I'll be watching it very closely, especially around 1.7900 area. I hope to see good momentum to carry it pass 1.800 area (GBP/CHF). If not, I'll be moving my S/L to BE.
I'll be applying the similar strategy on EUR/GBP
Price Action is a powerful thing and could work out well. As long as you understand that its not the best setup and manage it accordingly, go for it.
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I posted a chart of this before (well a d1 one where you have to mentally join the bars together) and my main concern is the large bear bar previous.
At the moment I have a pending buy just above 96.9 resistance, which hasn't been hit yet. I downloaded the break even expert and have it set to apply at ~50 pips above as the first point this will stall at is ~97.470 (I gotta go study so can't be watching the charts too much). Partial set to be taken at 97.42
Sorry I missed that post. The 97.00 I believe is the key level. Price may touch it and run down. A break of the 97.00 then retrace or retest may be the way I play it.
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2 Day PB on the Usd/Jpy. The size could be bigger and a bit of traffic in front of it. "This is Critical" is in full play on this one.
"James16:
THIS IS CRITICAL.
WE MUST LEARN TO:
Notice a strong s/r area just beyond our pa if it exists.
Know that if we trade into it we had better be prepared for a quick reversal that could give us a loss if we are not prepared.
if we know its there, we have several choices.
1. get out when it gets there for a small profit.
2. take a small partial profit and move the remainder to BE.
3. stay in with your total position hoping for a break and move your stop to BE.
4. Dont enter until the level has been broken."
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I've been wanting to post my preffered charts for today...
the USDJPY 2 Day PB and EURGBP bearish PB
USDJPY
First to talk about is the USDJPY 2 Day PB, on my fxopen feed it has a good close and open, while IBFX demo feed shows a merely bullish 2 day bar. but we can also play this as an inside bar, which if we did, would trigger a trade earlier but not always a high probability of a hard break, another confluence is the 61.8 fib level from the last swing low.
The big picture of USDJPY shows a wedge forming and the 2 day pin formed off...
Very nice analysis Marcel.
These lower quality setup can't (IMO) be managed as a A+ setup. They have to be carefully watch for how they break and moved to break even or ignored (or demoed) all together. Again, the best A+ setups are what we want.
Nice work.
Jim
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Both orders filled, USDJPY already closed first half for 12 pips profit, other half on BE and currently +24 on paper.
the EURGBP is filled and and my close first half and BE is when on 20 pips profit, lets see how it goes.
This really is exciting! Big Thanks for Jarroo! I can't believe trading can be this exciting... of course this is the first time I forward tested it, still a looooot more ground to cover on it.
Remember both is still on demo for another few months I'm still nowhere near live trading for this method.
Nothing better then no draw down (ok, 1pip) after the break to confirm that the setup is correct. Daily PB in Blue
Nice.
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What is your trade managment on this pair? What is your first profit target and when do you move to BE on this trade?
Also, your UJ trade? Do you play that 2D PB, I was in that trade, I only get 50% for when it reach 28 pips. I play break of the 2D PB. How do you manage this one?
Meaning to play it tight, how hard does it break and move to break even quickly. And use the previous Highs/Lows on the Daily, 8 hour or 4 hour for possible Targets.
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What is your trade managment on this pair? What is your first profit target and when do you move to BE on this trade?
Also, your UJ trade? Do you play that 2D PB, I was in that trade, I only get 50% for when it reach 28 pips. I play break of the 2D PB. How do you manage this one?
Thanks!
The Usd/Jpy 2 Day PB had the potential of being a great trade and it still may turn out the way.
The PB could have been better in size and the swing low could have been deeper, but the confluences supporting it looked good.
The PB has a strong Resistance level right infront of it. The 97.00 round number, PPZ level and the 38.2 Fib. If the strength of a two day Pin Bar could break that Resistance level then turn into a Support level then we would be in business.
Remember this from James16's "This is Critical":
"Notice a strong s/r area just beyond our PA if it exists.
Know that if we trade into it we had better be prepared for a quick reversal that could give us a loss if we are not prepared. "
I took the break and moved to break even once it got to about 17-18 pips away. It got to that heavy Resistence level (97.00) and then reversed and stopped me out at break even. This was a break even trade for me.
I then watched Price break the 97.00 level and waited to see if it would hold. It did not. This is a good sign that Price broke the level. But I am not going to hold a long drawdown or take a big loss to see if it breaks it again.
The 8 hour had a nice bearish PB off this 97.00 level but I didn't take it. Other feeds showed a nice bearish PB on the 4 hour, again off this strong 97.00 level.
Jim
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The 8 hour had a nice bearish PB off this 97.00 level but I didn't take it. Other feeds showed a nice bearish PB on the 4 hour, again off this strong 97.00 level.
Jim
Charts;
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Wow. Anything else you guys want to know about? Like my favorite color?
Just kidding, guys. lol Great questions, I'll try to answer them the best I can.
You style is clearly quite hands on once the trade breaks and not of the set and forget type (unless PA is A++, then I guess you can split the positions, set TPs and relax). So do you stay glued to your computer waiting for the break, or do you use alerts? Great setups are the goal to the trades I select, just like it should be for every one that trades this method. I do use alerts if I have multiple setups that I'm watching. But usually (because I'm picky) I don't have many alerts going at one time.
Which sessions do you watch and what do you do when it comes time to sleep? Do you pull the order or sleep with an alert? Sleep? Who sleeps? I'll sleep when I'm dead. I'm not at set and forget trader (yet), so in that sense I am hands on. If a great setup ocurrs while I'm asleep, I'll have to wait and catch the next one. lol Before and during the London session I watch the most.
How much pips will you give out in case you do not have time to move BE and price go back. Do you always have a maximum number of pips for stoploss for monitoring the break? Like 20 or 30 pips. Again depending on the setup and (as Tia mentioned) S/R levels within the formation itself, I will set my stop loss accordingly. Meaning that if a 300pip PB has an inner S/R level say 55 pips away (or left eye level) from the entry I'll use that level and adjust my position size. If Price breaks and hits my entry which is 6 to 8 to 10 pips away and starts running against me, I may stop out sooner say 20 to 30 pips or just let it stop out.
What if the potential support or resistence requires a drawdown for over 30 pips, maybe 40 or 50 pips? Will you want to give it a try or you just cut the loss immediately no matter what? Again depending on the setup. On A+ trades I will take the initial pips offered on the 1st half and place my stop loss on the 2nd half at the top/bottom of that given setup.
Also, are you getting pickier in trade selection recently? It seems that you're passing on more trades. If so what brought this change on?
lol Better results. Mike had said this many times, that the so-so trades between our A+ trades can make the differences of a profitable month or breakeven/ losing month.
And finally, when you're looking for 30-40 pip hard break moves, does the spread factor in? Yes, so a 40 pip break would reslut in a 37 pip move with a 3 pip spread.
I hope I came close to answering your questions, if not ask again.
This was fun,
Jim
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I think timezones play a huge role in this. For me my daily bar closes 11pm my time, and Asia is often quiet. So I need a strategy that allows me to sleep and wake before London open. I don't want to be micromanaging a trade that breaks in Asia. Trader comfort zone. As always. So many ways to make a living in these markets with this material.
Have a great Sunday.
I would like to get to a point where I make one trade a year. lol.
I hear of some (whether true or not) who will place a 20 lot trade then shut down their computer and go out for a relaxing dinner. Now that's making a living. lol
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What if the potential support or resistence requires a drawdown for over 30 pips, maybe 40 or 50 pips? Will you want to give it a try or you just cut the loss immediately no matter what? Again depending on the setup. On A+ trades I will take the initial pips offered on the 1st half and place my stop loss on the 2nd half at the top/bottom of that given setup.
1. Base on your answer, do you mean you will kill 1st half of the position on the first stoploss point and still set the stoploss above or below the bottom of the pin bar for the 2nd half of the position IF IF this is the A+ setup you consider? If this is not the A+ trade, you will just kill whole position at the first stoploss point, right? Do I get it correctly?
If its an A+ setup and the break is weak, I'll kill it at break even or for a small loss. If the break is strong and my 1st half gives say 100+ pips I may place my stop loss at the top/bottom of the setup. In all honesty, I rarely do this.
Case in point, the recent Weekly PB on the GBP/Usd the initial break gave up 130 pips of which I was able to grab 118 on the 1st half. I placed my stop loss on the 2nd half not at break even but -20 pips away from break even. My thinking was that if a retest would ocurr I would be safe. It was not.
I was not willing to take any more draw down then that, even though I believe this is an A++ setup which is currently in a heavy draw down.
2. That means you usually do not have a hard stop loss but each time you will set your stoploss base on the actual setup, right? like right eye or left eye. Yes Only if this is A+ trade, you will set your stoploss below or above the pin bar? correct? Yes, at times but its a rare occurrence.
3. I remeber your mentioned you take the GU 2Day pinbar and took the small loss on that one because it run against more than 100 pips before going green. How do you consider this 2day pin bar when you manage it? Do you think it is any A+ trade, and I want to know at which POINT you kill this trade when went agaist you. What is your initial stoploss point on this? Not sure I understand these questions. I will say this. A quality A+ PA setup has an inherit strong momentum factor built in it. It should give an initial strong and/or steady move for a fair amount of pips.
If this doesn't happen, there is something wrong (imo), be it traffic or seen/unseen S/R or something to cause the break to be weak. I don't ask why any more, I just manage what Price is telling me.
Because no one knows where Price will go.
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Your answers are the gold information to me. I will test it out more with your strategy and I am sure the R:R will be much better than taking the full bar stop.
Happy smile on me and I am look forward to test it out more in the coming week.
Thanks!
Glad I could help PipingM.
The key here is the quality of the setup. A high time frame A+ PA setup, meaning in form, size, location, many supporting confluences with common sense targets can make for an easy trade no matter how its managed.
Jim
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The conventional stuff is still on the daily and I have no plans of moving down for any reason...why, I am just way to comfortable on the highers with my pin bars, outside and inside bars and the IPBs.
Just checking ghous.
Glad to see you back posting charts.
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candle formations don't work lower than 4 tf. try to look when it trades lower or higher. just my 2 cents...
They work on lower time frames but with all Price Action setups location is key. Mainly off higher time frame PPZ levels, Fib levels, round numbers and the conflunence of all of them the better. Being very very picky with them is crucial.
Charts: Daily PPZ level with Hourly bar confirmation.
Edit : and what Jim said.
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I can see what's troubling you. The first thing that you must do is to keep your eyes off anything less than the daily irrespective of your personal inclinations.
The Pb was off a good location but the small size was a significant factor. But even if you wanted to take the trade and would have gone abt it exactly how you should be doing it no way was that PB taking any money out of your pocket, why?
Did it break? I.e did the low get breached? No.
[u][b]retrace entries cannot be played untill the bar breaks,...for the simple...
Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous
You can enter on a pure break (i.e a few pips below the high/low of the pin bar) which is by far the most conservative and hence the safest way of playing these bars.
If you're on the aggressive side you could consider a retrace entry ONLY WHEN THE PIN BAR HAS BROKEN.
I personally don't play retrace entries at all. was doing it earlier but did not find it pleasing to my taste so reverted to the conventional "pure break" trades. I won't call them futile in any sense though...
Regards,
Ghous.
I couldn't have said it better ghous. Refer to this James16 post.
well, imo ...the location for eurgbp is poor, hav resistance just above...
ive closed half for 11 pips or so.....moved other half to -20pips....shld be @ BE but im sure ill get taken out, want to give it some room....lets see how she plays....
gbpchf has room to move but also playing it tight....
dnt forget they are both not A trades......imo
trade mgt is the key....
Quote:
Originally Posted by squeezy
sweet hard break(jarroo style) on both especially gbpchf, now at be on both trades.... closed half on both for some profits, eventhough a bit early but its all good...
Very nice squeezy.
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$cad H1 DBLHC which formed 8hrs ago started the upmove.
(correct me if i'm off...) on the daily chart, it was also a TBH (two-bar high) breakout above 1.1361. it's a non-strict Four bar high breakout (daily chart; 9-14-pip difference) if u consider the june15 & 16 bars/candles & disregard the june17 bar.
on eur$, price has almost reversed to the pip (but broke some other minor ppz) of my plotted minor ppz @ 1.3825. H1 is forming a non-strict buob/dblhc (3pip difference from lows) but still has 40minutes for bar to...
A chart could show this a lot clearer sChoas. Gottta a chart?
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I call shenanigans on this one. Why would you take this trade? The R/R is ridiculous. If you took that pin, you better be aiming for 1.94. Otherwise - you are wasting your time.
CW
Sorry, just that trades like this are dangerous, especially for newbies.
I agree that they're dangerous but are tradable when managed carefully. I can see using R:R, stop loss above/below the setup, using 2-3%, etc. if the setup was A+. But this setup would not qualify for those parameters.
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For good or bad, I trade the same strategy [almost] every time...makes it much less gutsy... maybe just unwise to take non-A+ trades...
Josh
I wouldn't say it is unwise to take a non-A+, it was definitely in the "A" catorgory. I believe the A+ trades and non-A+ trades are managed differently.
Sorry I maybe wrong and your eye saw this as an A+ setup. Which infact, as it turns out, it was. Very nice Josh.
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I was referring to the "price action" as textbook stuff. Was going through my daily charts when I saw the beautiful price action...thought I would share it...I should have specified it clearly...
This is textbook J16 trade ghous. It just in a different section of the book.
Is this a textbook Mike trade? I would say, "no". Managing this trade in the traditional sense would not apply.
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There are so many ways to play basic price action. Ghous is right to point out that price reversed exactly where expected, and if you took the daily GBPCHF trade you can't have been surprised that it did that.
Clock is also right that if you took that trade near a swing high looking for that small RR then it's an awful lot to risk for a small RR. But there are many ways to look at this.
You could be a "stop to break even quick" kind of trader. And so as the trade broke hard you moved your stop to BE looking for a longer move. You got stopped...
Great Post as always Tia. I believe you will come to realize that you can have many styles of trading in your arsenal. Knowing when to apply them with certain setups comes with time and practise.
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thnx jarroo
when is a pa setup no more valid, cant post charts, dnt kno y
i hav a buob on my eurjpyh4 chart 8hrs ago, the next 4hr formed an inside bar, and now on the next 4hr ....
is dis momentum building, not sure
not sure whether i shld pull my order out
btw the eurjpyh4 buob is on my fxdd feed
also dblhc on chfjpy h4, same scenario
Well, it has be validated before its not valid. lol Validation come from the PA setup breaking.
Momentum building? maybe.
If you are unsure, close your position.
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thnx J
i think ill leave my order still opened and try and mgt the trade with tight SL,
already using 60pips SL, but if she breaks ill tighten it to about 30 according to hw she behaves, or jst totally remove it later
ill wait a bit, thnx
I like the "next bar break" rule that Mike has talked about. Meaning if the next bar doesn't break the setup then close the position. But I've been rethinking it during different times of the day, time frames and potiential momentum building. But its a great way to confirm or nonconfirm a potenial setup.
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(PS. And yes (in relation to your earlier post) that is exactly what I am working towards. A handful of management styles that can be deployed situationally. On my spreadsheet of trades taken I have a ton of extra columns for different styles. It's for exactly that reason. To collect information and have an arsenal of trade management styles)
That's excellent Tia. Once you see a setup so many times and how you managed it before worked so well, and then you apply it the same way it almost becomes routine or (dare I say) boring. lol
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I like this on the daily, although a nice inside bar with the open and close up in the direction of the trade is something I like to see as a momentum build up.
The thing with the 4H is that often there are dead bars depending on the time of day you take it. So I am not quite sure how to play that yet. Which is why I am accumulating demo data on trading that TF.
My thing is, I don't want to have a trading plan that allows me to change things too early on. It's a recipe for emotional trading for me. I want to take a trade in the confidence that...
The Pin Bar/Inside Bar comes to mind as a great example of momentum building setup, well the ones that break any way. lol.
It sounds like you got a plan, Tia. That emotional stuff goes away over time, (well most of it lol). When your eye balling a BEOB, at a swing high, with Fib and Divergence confluences for the 30th time it becomes less emotional.
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thnx J
i think ill leave my order still opened and try and mgt the trade with tight SL,
already using 60pips SL, but if she breaks ill tighten it to about 30 according to hw she behaves, or jst totally remove it later
ill wait a bit, thnx
She behaved poorly. Waiting for the break saves the day again. "And it always will. " (J16).
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Dropped Onion,
good observations.
gbp strength has been relentless, from mid-May to Mid-June. i think it's now time for gbp weakness.
So i would not be surprised if gj breaks 155. might go to 150-152 easily.
then possibly 140-143, then. who know...s 118 - 123 area & beyond.
i expect u have looked at Daily charts & up too. some of these observations have already been mentioned:
Daily seem to have H & Sh., Weekly has a sort of 2-bar PB, Monthly has a PB forming.
gj has been 1 of those i temporarily ceased to trade (live), but still try...
Looks like it shaping up for a good run down. One thing about the "beast" that I've learned, once she gets going, stay out of her way.
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Yup, I believe you are correct. I would love to see price flip at 155, creating resistance. Then, again, beast being what it is, I wouldn't be surprised to see price keep falling to hit 151 area.
We know that Price doesn't move in a straight line,(then again with this pair you never know). Some bearish PA at a retraces would be nice.
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Jarroo, would you have entered blindly or better wait for a retracement of neck line?
This is one of my worst skills (if any): Clear PPZ to go up or down, but no PB nor BUOB or BEOB to use PA (lots of them today). What to do?
Let it escape down and down and wait for a retracement, if it does?
Going to lower TF trying to see a retracement? From daily, to 4h, 1h, 30 min, 15 min, 5 min?? which is the limit?
Your advise will be appreciated!
wwtravel's chart above looks ideal. You just have to be patient and let a setup develop. Higher time frame PA is what works the best. Blind entry at the neck could work but risky. We could go up and test the right shoulder.
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Also you can always find reasons to trade and not to trade. They key is to find the reasons in a consistent way for both trading and passing on trades.
Mike
Pure gold Mike.
One can read that line and think about for a week with nothing but positive results.
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Ya he was great, I just wish someday I could blow up and then bitch everyone out lol. I think we had someone like that in Atlanta about 9 years ago, he blew up in a week and shot and killed 12 people.
Those who are in long G/J trade, are you Guys booking profits at 157.40 and then BE /
G/J is a wild rider, truly I hate this pair cause is so wild and I think I need to learn to ride the wheeler before I got into Ferrari
Now will stand asaide and watch the race
Can you see my order on the internet? Yes that's my plan.
This is a "A" catagory PB with good confluences, close to A+ in my opinion. I may give it move leeway for higher 1st targets due to its higher quality. If not my more conservative approach is always in play.
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Could you list the confluences you found for the trade?
When I was checking out my daily setups I found the recent ppz at 155, round number 155, and the 23 and 38 fibs from the swings I have outlined. Are there any other confluences you have that I may have missed?
Scott
edit: see my chart below
Nice chart scott.
I have basically the same confluences; 38.2 fib lining up with the 155.00-50 PPZ level. Also above another RN, 156.00. It's with the trend (Ryanmcd ).
The 157.00 is currently holding it down right now. This is a key level. I believe the size of the PB has the strength to break through that. We'll see.
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Yep, Jarro,. I'm on that trade. I see those highs too. Right now, I moved my stoploss to BE.
Fly to the moon?
Protecting yourself along the way. The Gbp/Jpy Daily PB is a classic high quality setup and placing stop loss below it, R:R, 2%, etc., would be a great plan as well. imo
(Thanks Mike)
Jim
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without a doubt this has been one of my best week & it isnt over yet.....lol
still cant shout but ill try....
anybody in eurgbp h4 & gbpchf h4 trades, loving them , they both are opposite to each other, once you get the right direction for one the other is definately the other way ( so far so good)
thank you LORD
thnx J16 fam , there truly is light at the end of the tunnel
have faith people....lol
Nice work squeezy. Yeah I caught the gbpchf, that .7500 level/ 50 fib was to juicy to pass up. lol
Good job.
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Let's say I've got 10 A+ setups that get triggered, so I got 10 trades.
Great post marco.
I think the key wording is "A+ setups". I know . .why take anything less. I have been guilty of trading a little less then an A+ setup.
So managing these type trades are different as they should be or not taken at all.
All in all, your post shows the true power of a high quality A+ trade.
Jim
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Thanks for the encouragement. Here are the charts. On the aussie, I waited for the price to clear the potential trouble spot around 0.7865. I had my first TP around the blue area corresponding with the previous bar lows and the fib. However, I move my SL up to BE too quickly and so was taken out on a retrace. If I had kept my SL at the top of the pin or even at -30, I would've hit my target.
On GBP/CHF. I entered around the area indicated by the blue line as I thought it good to go once this area had been cleared. However, I also thought...
I've gone through the same exact process myself, TN.
Being very picky with your trades, "This is Critical", areas of trouble, Stop Loss placement above/below a given A+ setup is the best place, etc. . .
All that being said. Here's a secret stop loss placement that I use and have been testing. So, don't tell anyone.
Place your stop loss above/below the bar (candle) that breaks the setup. It must on the same time frame that the setup was given.
So on the Aud/Usd & Gbp/Chf 4 hour PBs, the stop loss after the break would be placed just above/ below the candle that actually broke the setup. (Charts. The stop loss placements are in magenta)
Check out other setups as well.
Jim
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That's creepy. I have been testing the exact same thing. I have a whole demo account dedicated to it.
Are you in my head Jim?
It works pretty well doesn't it. Although because I sleep during Asia, I have a SR based reduced stop when the trade is placed (in two positions so that one half closes automatically at first SR). The if it hasn't borken by London open I switch off the autopilot and go to manual...
All on demo, and just another style to add to the toolbox.
Kinda cool that we were both on the same page about this though/...
I don't believe its anything new. Although I haven't seen much talk about it. Its been very effective for me. You'll notice on some setups that once this bar break stop loss is hit, it usually goes on and fails the setup. Its not 100%, what is ?
I don't know about being in your head, Tia. lol Your just going through what we all go through when we're learning and testing.
Jim
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It is common for price to retest a breakout area right? That's why Jarroo method of moving SL on each previous bar high/low makes sense...
How will you rate such reentry? I'm just curious to know (:
Let me be clear. I am not suggesting you move your stop loss (after the break) to each of the next proceeding bar Low/High. You have a setup, and Price breaks it, (ideally its the next bar and it breaks hard) and you leave that stoploss there, above/ below the break bar, until your 1st TP is hit.
This is an alternative stop loss placement then break even. So if Price breaks and retests the break, your safe.
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I wrote this post to rh674 recently and then proceded not to follow my own advice.
Jumped into the GBPJPY pin bar trade just over a day ago, price moved nicely up, moved stop to BE, went to bed, price missed my TP by 6 pips (was 131 pips in profit at that stage) then ran back down and took out the stop and ran thru a further 20 odd pips.
Gov
I always low ball my targets. Meaning I go for nearest areas of the target. If, for example, I was short and I was looking to come down on my target say a nice round number like .6300 I would take .6305 or .6310 as target hit.
Writing out your trading plan is a great exercise on many different levels.
Maybe write one out and place it on this thread. You will get a lot of different eyes looking at it and it will prbably help many others as well. The best trading plans are short and simple.
Jim
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hard break of the pin, that produced 20 pips in profit instantly
Quote:
Originally Posted by datogio
I got in on the pin bar break today, first target was 1.6300, closed half of my position at that point, now im going to trail it with 2 bar method on h4 chart.
exit strategy should be developed based on your ROI so that's you who should know best of all does this exit strategy works for you or not my friend.
nice trade
datogio, you are the Man. Very nice.
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I like that exit strategy idea Jarroo. I've tested something similar (-0.5R as initial stop) and it proved very profitable. Think I posted it somewhere.
Josh
Its more of an initial stop loss strategy not an exit strategy, if we're talking about the same thing.
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Ok went long on both the AUDJPY and GBPJPY daily pins from a few days ago.
got both TP for a total of ~230 pips. Obviously happy with this.
However not to long on in the trade it became apparent I was effectively trading the same trade - both trades went up and down at the same times etc so the trade was based around the JPY strength/weakness as opposed to the AUD or GBP...
I addition both pins and previous patterns were similar.
I was wondering what do folks do in this senario?
Play both (as I did)
pick one (which ever looks best)...
Mike had a great post on this you might have missed it. They were very similar setups.
Here is a trade on going for me on the audjpy 4hrs.
Targets for me are the 2 purple lines.
Any comments?
Pinbar wasnt that great but was at a nice spot.
Great places (location) will always make up for not so great bar confirmation. But the better the bar, the better the result. Don't ignore round numbers my friend. Nice trade.
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I liked the idea of your secret stop loss and I will test it.
I have one question: How do you know your position size?
I mean, If you have a stop order, don't you need to be adjusting your position size constantly (for example on your second chart)? . If you enter with a market order I believe you have to calculate your position size several times until the bar breaks the setup bar, am I right?
Hope you understand my questions.
Ty in advance,
Miguel
You don't have to be that exacting, well at least for me, I'm not. You can get an estimate of where the stop loss would be by gauging if Price is heading for our trigger or entry level.
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Thank you so much for th eencouragement. It's good to know that even the pros were where us newbies are once. I took the cable pin today and placed my stop at the top of a 4h bar. Got out with 40 pips at 1:1 R:R. I know its not much, but its better than BE so maybe I'm starting to make progress. Thanks again for the help.
I'm glad I could help TN.
It looks like you took the BarBreak off the hourly time frame, which is fine. But it works best with the same time frame that the setup was given.
You can even use 15 min Bar Break off the Daily setup which in this case was the same as the Hourly BarBreak. This may work on some setups, again depending on the quality.
Jim
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I've decided not to take this trade because it wasn't formed at a marked PPZ on my charts. Is it at a pretty good location? I think yes. But not good enough for my trade management, where I hold trades for a larger move.
Best of luck on this one, Jim. I'll be watching it. It would have to reach 1.1450 to reach a B/E trade for me (if I would have taken it)...
Josh
True words of wisdom Josh. This is an easy "I'll pass" setup. But let's take a look at managing tight and see what happens. Should be fun.
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Yeh I had my TP at 158.30, about 13 pips below the lowest previous high/low bars. Think I should have considered the round number. Also if I'd left my initial stop in place my TP would have been hit yesterday.
Positive is it didn't turn into a loser.
Definately going back thru my trades and formalise my trade management.
Will look at the secret break bar stop loss, too!
Trading plan (work in progress), finding that most templates are more complex than i'd like, so i need to try and simplify this as much as possible, as you...
Yes, Round Numbers can't be ignored. Very good Gov.
Jim
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Yep, on my aggressive SL demo that one ate me. And my SL was exactly there. But the odds on this thing are intriguing. Interesting how often the bar break SL lines up with old daily, 8H and 4H resistance.
Good eye there Tia.
Its just a different option to have in your stop loss tool box.
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Hi Jarroo, would this be concidered one of your double IBs? im not sure if the third bar needs to be inside the second? do you use this idea on the dailies?
cheers
jon
I would have to check with Dale on that. But I think its a pretty strict formation. If it doesn't seem right, as with all PA, it's an easy pass. Yes, on the Daily and Weeklies too.
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this is the planet in 100 milion years based on current plate movement.
i always say how i enjoy the aussies here.
well take a look, it will be a while but we will eventually be nieghbors.
This has always fascinated me as well. And to hear all these man made global warmimg nuts, they would look at that picture and figure how has man caused this.
Man cannot cause global warming no more then he can stop the plate movements of the earth.
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The most powerful thing I've lerned on this thread is not technical analysis, it s way how to take trades without any self doubt or fear, because Now I realize that its only on me if my trade turns into loser or into winner.
Knowing the power of proper position management, makes me open to learning each time I'm in the position, instead of being fearful or doubtful.
To be picky is only the product of such approach and I'm right on to it and its important not to mess being picky with fear of losing.
Thank you once again jarroo you're a good...
Very wise words datogio.
And thank you.
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I observed this Pinbar yesterday, but it did not go very well. It just go to the "right" direction until it hit a nearby S/R. Although it is in a upward trend, but it is sideway on a higher timeframe. Wonder if more experienced Pinbar user can give me some advices about the quality of this Pinbar.
Thanks
Quote:
Originally Posted by kk007
How about this one yesterday please... is it an obvious one?
Weekend is a good time for evaluation!
Its tough trading the Hourly time frame if we don't know what's going on on the higher times frames.
The Hourly PB when right where we knew it was going to go. It was running right into a very strong S/R level, this is not just on the Hourly time frame, it is strong level on the 4 hour and Daily time frames as well.
For an Hourly PB to break a Daily S/R level is very hard to do. Does it happen? Sure sometimes, but we have to be prepare for the high probability that it won't.
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A wise and frugal government, which shall leave men free to regulate their own pursuits of industry and improvement, and shall not take from the mouth of labor the bread it has earned - this is the sum of good government.
Thomas Jefferson
I knew I was going to maybe offend some of my fellow FF members by what I wrote. But its easy to say when you have the truth on your side.
Love that Jefferson quote. It can't be quoted enough.
Jim
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The high of the current bar is less then the high of the 1st bar back and the high of the 1st bar bar back was less then High of the 2nd bar back...Of course the reverse of the same Idea for the lows.... The low of the current bar is greater then the low of the 1st bar back and the low of the 1st bar back was greater the the low of the 2nd bar back.
Why?.....
You asking your original question answers mine. If the pattern is not clear to all who see it, they may stand aside rather then...
Thanks for the clarification Dale.
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I just don't think this thread is the place for it. No one is telling you not to discuss it. There is a members lounge here. Open a thread link it. Go for it.
This is a must, because we run into problems like "Is that a trend continuation? . . . of what ? the Cable or CO2 emissions?" lol
I wanted to post a chart that shows the relationship between the 9/11 conspiracy and global warming. Just kidding, it's a CHF/JPY daily chart with an I4B.
Pros:
Price is at a strong PPZ near 88.00.
23.6 Fib
200 EMA
Diagonal Trend Line
Price has been trending upwards for about 6 months.
Cons:[list][*]Lots of traffic: Price was consolidating through much of the past week and there are several highs/lows of previous bars that could cause price to reverse.[*]I can't tell where the PPZ begins and where it ends....
Good discussion about this one PipG. (ghous, g_j_hook, and others)
That big BEOB cannot be ignored. We have heard of Inside 4 pevious Bar (I4B) or I10+B. Well this Bearish Outside Bar is O10+B ( I just made that up. lol) Although it is not at a swigh High, stopping at a strong confluenced area of the 87.00, 200 ema (blue) , PPZ level and Fib 61.8. Does the BEOB have the strength to break through this level against the trend?
I agree with ghous the MAs and trendlines by themselves don't hold that much strength unless they act as a supportive confluence. The Big Guy has been using long term MAs (365, 150, etc,) for a long time and understands their effectiveness, so I'm on board with them when they apply.
The Double Inside Bar can be used as an low risk trade but there is sure is a lot of traffic in this area.
A big bullish PB at the 87.00 confluenced area would be the what I would be waiting for.
Just some thoughts.
Jim
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Hi Headless, welcome to the thread and thanks for your comments. All things considered, the more I looking at this one, the more I am becoming tempted to trade it. I am thinking that it is maybe worth a go but only with correct trade management.
Kean
I think it is everything we look for in a setup. imo (as others have stated).
It's worth a hard break look. If it hits 1.9000 and then retraces back to the break of the PB and then breaks the 1.9000, this would add confirmation that the setup is correct. Then again it may just keep on going.
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I am away from charting computer right now so am stealing rustyjeff's 4H chart. the sell order is his.
That was a beauty, Tia. Off a strong PPZ and Fib levels on the Daily and Weekly. Size relative to previous bars look great. Some traffic but worth hard break look. (what the heck was I doing to miss this one.)
Notice the hard break, then retrace to the break and then continue onward. Nice. (Hourly chart)
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Hey Jarroo! Do you consider this for hard break?
ALM
The initial break was not good at all. If you placed the entry 10 pips below the low of the BEOB (the buffer) you would have caught it nicely. One of the main reasons we use a buffer above/below our setup is for Price to prove or confirm that 1. the setup is vailid and 2. that a hard break is confirmed or tested. (Hourly Chart, Daily BEOB in green)
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Ghous, is there also a timeframe over which the setup would be valid assuming it broke the high, or a price extension over which its invalid.
eg it takes another 10 bars before it retraces or the bar extends its same length again before it retraces back down?
I may give more leeway for a break to ocurr on the Daily or Weekly (i.e. momentum building). But the ideal situation is the next bar to break it. As ghous has stated, the PA formation is not valid until it breaks. If it doesn't break over many bars (retrace) it does not lose its validity due to not breaking, but may lose its momentum.
If it breaks and then retraces, it doesn't become invalid until the opposite High/Low is broken.
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I agree that CTs are much harder than trades with a trend, but as long as you have a proven method that works most of the time, I'm ok with it.
Agreed. CT trades are harder, yet provide a very high potential gain. That is why James16, Mike and others stresssss the importance of being very very picky in choosing these CT trades carefully. Location and many confluenceS make for some easy trading.
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Thanks Jaroo and ghous, I think the above was the statement I was looking for.
On the attached is the bearish OB still valid in the 2nd box? If not what has invalidated it:
a) the move downwards to 1.58 region (and if so at what point does this move invalidate it)?
b) the retracement is nearly a full retracement meaning lower probability of success
The BEOB (in blue) fullfilled itself perfectly and countered the move with a bullish PB. An ideal stiuation to go long with the trend. The green box had nothing to with the BEOB directly, in terms of retracement.
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Thanks for that Jarroo. Different data feeds, same result. I see you have 0.8500 marked up. Is it possible this level has been used and abused a bit too much recently and hence loses its value?
These big Round Numbers i.e., .9000, .8500, .8000, .7500 etc., will always have its value. Sure it may lose a little respect from time to time. But their respect from me I will always have.
For example, when Price cuts through the .8500 like a knife (chart 4H PB), it tells me more of the strength of the move then anything.
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Thanks for that Jarroo. Different data feeds, same result. I see you have 0.8500 marked up. Is it possible this level has been used and abused a bit too much recently and hence loses its value?
Also, you can say that this consolidation area (in green) is hanging around what area? The .8500 level. So some solid PA on the Daily away from this area, may not be bad at all.
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Also, you can say that this consolidation area (in green) is hanging around what area? The .8500 level. So some solid PA on the Daily away from this area, may not be bad at all.
Sorry, it could have already happened. (BUOB on the Daily at .8500)
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With time and practice everything is possible. Not sure about heart....
Here's something similar I did with good results for the last two years (removed a couple of filters from the chart). I once had a thread in the pf on this topic.
BTW.
Happy 4th of J
It was taken few years back before I went on a diet...
WTF
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Thank you for sharing this. I have friends from Iran, they ache to go back, but realize that they cannot due to the conditions there. All of them have lost family to the current regime.
Americans celebrate their freedom today, but that has been an ongoing process for us when every so often the country goes through a painful period of change and adjustment. I believe we may be entering a period right now - the first since the turmoil of the 1960's. It is going to get a lot worse before it gets better.
When I read things like you have...
Simply beautiful. I think my eyes welled up.
Happy 4th of July.
Thanks SP.
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The Bar that breaks. It's uncanny how often a stop loss placement above (below) the BreakBar can prove rewarding for the R:R statistic. Is it better then above/below a given A+ setup? Probably not. But it sure proves itself time and time again. Is this an A+Weekly PB? No way.
I wonder what the R:R was on this one? I don't know, I'm not good with numbers.
Charts. Notice the retests of the Weekly PB break on the hourly (green circle).
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That technically isn't a pin since the open and close need to be within the prior bar. Some would say it is a pin by proxy, but I never trade proxy pins so I will let those come in here.
Hope all is well for you over there and staying safe
Mike
Hey Basber, try a different feed, that's what I do.
Nice PB on the Euro Daily on all feeds.
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I picked the weekly pin bar to trade on the cadjpy pair. I found it is very good because it seems like a breakout and rerest the trendline.
I sell it at 81.90 and I wasn expected the closest hurdle will be 81.00.
However, the price reach at the point at 81.40 and go back up? I was never prepare on this hurdle when I look at the weekly chart and I also don't find any significance on the daily chart too?
Can you give me some help showing why 81.40 is a concern? I should have take some off the table instead of waiting until...
Your right, it's not an A+ trade and its not even a PB, its an Inside Bar.
Location is not at a Swing High/Low, but its an IB, small in range compared to the last few weeks and off a Weekly PPZ level (83.00) so let's take a look.
The break pretty good, it gave close to 40 pips before a retest. BreakBar stop loss placement is 40 pips away.
I don't see any obvious hurdle at the 81.40. It was probabaly the 81.50 round number that gave it problems.
Taking some off the table when its a non-A+ (or non-"A" catagory) trade is a must in my book. (that's just me.)
It still has a good chance for the 81.0, it may be heading for that juicy round number, 80.00.
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I found the possible hurdle for why price stop at 81.30 area. It maybe the 38.2% fib level. See the chart.
Do you think we should always consider the big fib level and see it might be some kind of importance possible Support and Resistence level?
Do you usually concern area on those big fib levels? I am not really sure about this because I usually look at the historical bar low and bar high. If yes, I will pay more attention to the fib level support and resistence next time.
Thanks! Jarroo!
Pippingmama
Absolutely.
Not just "big fibs" , but any level or formations on the higher time frame, like the Daily and Weekly, are very important. As Mike has pointed out, its more data to work with.
But the key to it all, of a great location at these "bigger" time frames is when a few of these levels come together, meet or gather at one level: Confluence.
The 38.2 Fib combined with the 81.50 round number may have been it.
Yes, pay attention to these higher time frame levels, Fibs, 50% retrace, PPZs, Round Numbers, EMAs, trendlines, etc., especially when they come together.
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PippingMama,
(looking exclusively at your charts)
just to add a little view on this, if i may...
check out the highs/lows from April 2 onwards (starting around the long-nosed PB) to the lows prior yesterday's bar/candle (i'm just eyeballing your chart... 81.30 - 82.40 area), u could say that that area is a PPZ.
as always, the more confluence, the better.
Sounds interesting sChaos. Sure would be cool to see a chart, though.
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Jarroo! Weekly oil having BEOB shows the weakness of USD. How could this be good for the daily bullish pin on EU and GU ? like to know your view on this. Thanks
The break of the Weekly Oil BEOB was not that strong in relation to its apparent size. It may be going into retarce. Who knows. I'm not a big correlation guy. (although I am learning from Rac.) I like the EU and GU formations and confluences, they are worth a hard break look for me.
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You may want to put buy stop above 1.6395....so to make sure it breaks that monthly resistance level....just a suggestion. GregB
Looks good Greg.
One of the many problems of PBs in a consolidation area : The Traffic. There are many different levels the Price can break through or reverse back. So carefull trade management is in order.
Edit : Sorry, you wouldn't take the break of the PB, you would wait until it hits above that 1.6395 level. not a bad way to go.
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jarroo,
I haven't traded this, i believe. but here are 3 charts (XTB Trader MT4).
I extended the PPZ (in dark gray) to Oct10 2008. (Limited view of PPZ as the chart can't run farprior Jun2005). this PPZ hit on several highs/lows on the H4 to weekly charts.
I also plotted more Fibs from "significant" (higher) swing lows.
the blue dotted, red dotted, red & yellow Fibs were plotted way before (3rd chart). the rest are plotted only now.
[swing his/lows were based on my eye/discretion, not on fractal lines, LOL]
yellow Fib = may18...
Wow, that's some analysis sChaos. I would just look at Fibs from the major swing High/Lows on the weekly and look for other confluences around these levels. Just a simpler look for me.
I was just egging you to post more charts, that all. lol
You always write out some interesting stuff, but never post a chart. A picture is worth a 1000 words and less typing.
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Very broadly, the correlation you see (which often breaks down) between USD and oil is used to be mainly driven by the fact that oil is priced in USD, and so to buy more expensive oil, you needed to buy more USD.. and what happens when a bunch of people want to buy more of something? So there was a positive correlation... and you saw oil leading USD.
There are other factors balancing this though.
The USD is a 'safety' currency, so in times of uncertainty (like rising oil prices), people...
Thanks joelcf. Cool stuff.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Today I took the EU, UCHF and AJ daily pin bar trade. The EU and UCHF has enough space allow me to take enought profit. However, the AUDJPY trade got me 70 pips loss.
Please see the chart attached. My entry is around 76.50, more than 10 pips above the pin bar high. I orginally set the stoploss to the "The bar breaks low". The market go up and take my entry and maximum give me 5 pips and reverse backdown. I finally reset the stoploss to be 75.80. 20 pips below the 76 round number.
I knew 76.5 is some kind for hurdle. If I follow...
Hey PippingM I'll check this out. How's your Weekly Cad/Jpy IB doing?
It's looking good. This is important to the AJ trade you took, not directly but give me a few minutes.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
The Cadjpy trade was over. I only get half position for 30 pips when the market had a chance to go back that day. Then I set the rest postion to break even.
Somehow, it still a winner. I prefer the style that don't want to see a winner turn into a loser.
Thanks Jarroo and wait for your comment on my AUDJPY trade today.
I see. Good job Cad/Jpy.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Today I took the EU, UCHF and AJ daily pin bar trade. The EU and UCHF has enough space allow me to take enought profit. However, the AUDJPY trade got me 70 pips loss.
Please see the chart attached. My entry is around 76.50, more than 10 pips above the pin bar high. I orginally set the stoploss to the "The bar breaks low". The market go up and take my entry and maximum give me 5 pips and reverse backdown. I finally reset the stoploss to be 75.80. 20 pips below the 76 round number.
I knew 76.5 is some kind for hurdle. If I follow...
Trading into traffic can be tough. It's hit or miss sometimes.
I like how KissFan analogized this as a "seam" in traffic that Price has to break through, like a football player. Sometimes Price finds a hole and sometimes it finds a brick wall. The A/J PB found a brick wall.
As we all should do, we look at the level higher time frame (Weekly) to see if there is any supporting Price Action that would agree with our Daily PB.
If we look at the Weekly A/J we find a bullish PB, with the trend, that has broken very weak (green). Then a bearish PB (blue).
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Today I took the EU, UCHF and AJ daily pin bar trade. The EU and UCHF has enough space allow me to take enought profit. However, the AUDJPY trade got me 70 pips loss.
Please see the chart attached. My entry is around 76.50, more than 10 pips above the pin bar high. I orginally set the stoploss to the "The bar breaks low". The market go up and take my entry and maximum give me 5 pips and reverse backdown. I finally reset the stoploss to be 75.80. 20 pips below the 76 round number.
I knew 76.5 is some kind for hurdle. If I follow...
The point of the Weekly A/J was that Price was looking a bit bearish. I'm not saying I wouldn't take the Daily PB, its just good to get a look of what's going on above you.
I knew 76.5 is some kind for hurdle. If I follow your trading style, do I give too much room for stoploss and I should just give hard 20-30 pips stoploss when the entry need to clear the minor ppz? I liked that you were looking at the BreakBar Low as a stoploss, and I would not move this up if was a better setup. But you did great, Price broke and then reversed hard on you and you made the adjustment. Once Price was running hard against you, like this was, I would cut it loose pretty quick.
Can you give me some hint how you would manage this kind of trade? When do you choose to use the low or high of "The bar breaks rule" and when you choose small tight stoploss for some of the trade?I like the BreakBar stop loss on many different setups. You'll notice that if the Break Bar stop loss is hit , the setup usually fails, as it did with the A/J Daily PB. Not all the time, its not 100%, its just what I have found to see happen.
I will usually cut my loss pretty quick. Hard and fast breaks at the trigger tells me a lot about a given setup. Hard and fast break reversals against me, tells me alot as well. lol
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Thanks for point me the weekly chart and I will give more thought when I am picking the daily chart PA and see if weekly tell me something first. I miss that step when I look for PA, it will be my checkpoint everytime.
I think I will need more expeirence how to minimize the loss and I think it really depends on more pratice and seeing live price action. How strong the break it is and how quick the reversal it is.
Like EURO today is a hard break but quick reversal. Did you took this trade today? Do you take full profit on this...
I didn't take any trades today. (busy doing other stuff, I wish I would have been right here.)
Euro Daily PB was a great example. Price broke hard for about 50 pips. The setup is in consolidation (traffic) so tight trade management required. Grab 30-40 pips and move to break even.
The obvious target would be the .4100 and/or consolidation's Highs. But Price stops you out at break even on the 2nd half and you say "Oh well."
BreakBar low stop loss was 45 pips, just as a side note. Will the PB now fail since the BreakBar stop loss broke? Maybe, it hasn't yet. Although it was very close.
Pipping, your doing great with this style of trading. Yes . . . more practise, more live (demo) trades and of course, better setups. You will catch a trade that will go to the moon and your stop loss will never come into play. Patience and better setups, its just a matter of time.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Actually I am trading on live now with your style now. I found it is very good for people with smaller account size but like to get bigger gain, so it is all about Risk and Reward ratio and not over trade.
I am still experimenting with 1% risk with your style and I can generate 5% gain in 2 weeks period. I like the result so far and I want to be consistent and keep doing it.
I think the first only thing I need to keep praticing is to "Minimize the loss", that will lead...
Well said Pipping.
Consolidation, ranging or traffic setups can be a bit tricky , but very doable. The key component is minimizing losses. Also, when Price isn't breaking hard and steady (by "steady" I mean its moving more in your favor then declining against you. Retesting the break is a good example of this.) Then cut that baby loose and wait for the next one.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
"BreakBar low stop loss was 45 pips, just as a side note." On EURO trade, the breakbar low should be the low of the daily bar this morning right, I think it is 1.3902? If the PB high 1.3997, so it should be more than 45 pips?
How come you said the the EURO breakbar low loss was 45 pips, can you clarify this? If we are trading on daily chart, shouldn't we use daily bar low that breaks the PB?
Thanks!
Pipping
Good point Pipping. My mistake, I was looking at the 4 hour BreakBar. You are correct. 1.3902 was also the 8 hour BreakBar. We would have got 40 pips and move the 2nd half to break even anyway on this setup, right buddy.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
james16,
i'm envious particularly of the hiking & white water rafting.
Nice place Sir. still very much green..
Coincidentally, yesterday i watched a sci-documentary about forests, phytoncides the forest emits, & forest bathing.
These info validates & strengthens the fact that trees, plants, & the forests in general are very beneficial to humans, & thus the need to vigorously protect them..
I highly suggest all to research about these stuff.
Don't get him started. lol
I prefer "managed" then "protected".
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
I must be damn good at making physical appearances in my mind by reading posts....for some reason this is exactly how I thought Jarroo would look like.
lol!
Too much hair.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Hey Basber check out the Gbp/Jpy 4 Hour PB. It looks better in structure, but as Mike has said about the supporting confluences on the Eur/Jpy, nothing really standing out on the confluence side. It has already broken, not very impressive, again maybe time of day. 150.00 would be a likely target.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Also I know you do not want to take a full loss on this trad ewhich is why you cut it short but since there weren't more confluent aspect of this trade it may not have that momentum that you wanted.
the bar break stop, whcih would still keep you in this trade with reduced risk. After the bar breaks put your stop behind the bar that breaks it, that way if it is not a momentum setup you will be stopped out with lower risk, because to be honest you dont want to be in a low momentum setup on the 4hr IMHO.
Well said dmc. It is my humble opinion as well.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
oh sorry, I guess since i was looking at the chart after the fact it looked as if that would have made sense, but anyway I think that if you did that you would have been taken out of a bad trade with minimal loss, which is a good thing :-). I think thats what Jaroo and the bar break setup is all about. To eliminate non high momentum setups with small losses.
Very nice dmc. That's it in a nutshell.
We look for high quality setups that will produce a high momentum break and never look back. Well at least to the next area of interest.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
No worries Jarroo, if my voodoo wave counting is right, we going to see G/J going down, if not in near future, maybe someday just kidding though hehe
I'm myself waiting for G/J to reach 154-155. Bunch of resistance with Fibo confluences.
edit: btw, what is climate czar?
Climate czar, sometimes the thread steers into a discussion about man made global warming, which doesn't exist. The big guy and I get some other point of views.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
I hope others haven't forgot this post of yours back in March. I haven't.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bemac
I know this is a multiple posting but felt I had to do this...
I already posted this on the PF...
"
I reserve the right to change my mind on a whim. After all, I do Trade.
The Recent PA {over the last month or so if that's recent to you} has given me point to ponder.
Regardless of FA the USD has Gained accross the Board & I, thankfully, increased my cargo by playing in that direction.
NOW, after checking charts from TF's 15Min to 1 Month, it appears that is about to change.
You don't turn a MegaShip on a dime. It takes both Time & Distance.{Diplomats...
Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
To All : Remember this post, a few months from now.
(add to favorites)
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
The simple solution is to trade several different markets, and instruments. I haven't done much forex trading lately either.
I am however....short MSFT, PM, HPQ, and long 2@SEHK. (China Light, Hong Kong Exchange) The point is, there is less opportunity in trading just the 16-20 pairs the average Forex bucketshop offers.
I have found that with a few minor tweaks, T.A. works with all liquid markets, and even illiquid ones if you zoom out enough. Support is support, resistance is resistance, etc.....
My trading returns have skyrocketed since...
Hey Chris, do you find these others markets more responsive to Price Action then the forex market? Meaning, that a well structured quality setup ( PA, confluences. etc.,) reacts more favorably? Or is A+ setup is an A+ setup no matter what the market.
Thanks,
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
All markets are the same. The only difference is tick value, and liquidity. If it's not as liquid, the solution is simple: try higher time frames.
Even the MXN/JPY can be played if you look out far enough.
Trading is easy. Don't let anyone tell you any different. In fact, once I got my head right.....I am finding it's much simpler than most other things I have tried.
CW
Higher time frames do Rule, that's for sure. Having more opportunities can fine tune your pickiness.
It can be tough how easy it can be.
(does that make sense, I can't believe I said that).
Thanks,
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
lol. me too, but its not over till the fat lady sings !!
one green daily IB in 5 big red bars...it was bound to happen?? wonder where shell go now?
jon
Intersting area of high confluence on the Gbp/Jpy 4 hour PB (IBFX feed) that some took yesterday. (I did not).
155.00, 150 ema and 61.8 fib. Not a bad target to shoot for.
And not a bad area to shoot down from.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Intersting area of high confluence on the Gbp/Jpy 4 hour PB (IBFX feed) that some took yesterday. (I did not).
155.00, 150 ema and 61.8 fib. Not a bad target to shoot for.
And not a bad area to shoot down from.
Also, at a PPZ level on the Daily.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Intersting area of high confluence on the Gbp/Jpy 4 hour PB (IBFX feed) that some took yesterday. (I did not).
155.00, 150 ema and 61.8 fib. Not a bad target to shoot for.
yeah, i didnt get the bars on either of my feeds or i might have been tempted??lol
i have the area you mention marked on my chart also but i find the level its at now interesting also. What do you think of the PPZ running back to 1994 and 2000!? the IB closed right in it. worth trading either way i feel?
cheers
jon
Its also a 2 Day PB (IBFX feed). Worth a hard break look for me.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
When I woke up today in the morning I was hoping that a good hot discussion would have taken it's place.
I can't stay long but I will leave you with this.
Why is it so easy to understand the man cannot stop the plate tectonics of the Earth, yet man can be able to cause atmospheric changes (either warming or cooling)? Once one understands the statement of "man cannot stop the plate movements of the Earth" equally with "man cannot cause atmosphere changes" you have arrived at the understanding between the relationship of man and Earth.
I like this excerpt from Michael Crichton book "Jurassic Park" read by Charlton Heston.
We live on an active planet. Earthquakes are continuous, a 1.5 million a year, ( a richter 5.0 hits every 6 hours.) 1500 electrical storms are performing on the Earth at any given moment. There are 90 hurricanes every year. Could we have stopped Hurricane Katrina?
Volcanoes spew out more pollutants and toxic chemicals than man could ever produce. About 50-60 volcanoes erupt every year. 20-30 are effusive (lava flows), 20-30 are explosive. Not counting the volcanoes under the sea. This will continue for the next 10000s of year as it has in the last 10000s of years.
And so on and so on . .
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
nzd/usd w2 beob is catching my eye think it has a potential to be one of the monsters I'm hunting.
going to take this trade with tight stops, and monitor the momentum of the break.
EDIT: hope nobody's going to take it as a trading advise, I'm just thinking loudly
Looks good datogio. We would like to see that BEOB a bit bigger and at the peak or highest point of the swing High. (Like the one in the green box at the check mark).
A little traffic at the 38.2 and PPZ level. May want to use that as your quick to break even point. (refer: James16 - "This is Critical")
Looks like it broke by 1 pip. On the higher time frames (2 Weekly), we have to give a bigger "buffer" to show a convincing break.
Good eye, datogio.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Cheers Bud!
Lets see if I can explain this with another chart.....number 2.
Don't laugh at my numbers.
Number 2 is the inside bar.
I could be mistaken but I have read that for a break of the IB to occur, bar 3 MUST break bars 1 and 2.
Since that never happened. Bar 4 has now broke bars 1 and 2.
Can we consider this the break?
Pictures are so much easier.
(Thanks sChaos. )
Hey Punky, nice 1st post.
Inside Bars can be traded in many different ways. Breaking the previous Bar Low (Bar 1) is certainly one way to trade them as a confirmation of the IB setup.
As a Price Action setup as discussed in the thread, they can be traded just like any other qualified PA setup, i.e. Pin Bars, BEOB, BUOB, DBHLC, etc.
So we look for areas of high confluence (Location) and wait for a bar confirmation to give us a hint of where Price may be heading.
The Weekly Gbp/Chf IB has some good confluences. 50% retrace, off a big Round Number 1.8000 and its at a swing High.
Next we have to look what we are trading into, which are the previous High/Lows, PPZs, S/R levels, etc., or in other words the "Traffic" that may cause difficulty in allowing Price to move in our direction. Refer to James16's "This is Critical" : http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=33962
The 1.7500 big Round Number, at a Monthly/Weekly PPZ is a strong level of confluence that we are heading into from our IB.
So we have to take a common sense approach into the many factors when trading a setup that is not just Inside Bar, but any PA formation that presents itself at a preceived great location.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Anybody still in this BUOVB? Took it and got out at 72.44. Not really an A trade IMO but still had some good confluence and divergence, and it's a double bottom.
Nice Mark.
Same with the Gbp/Jpy, 4 Hour BUOB. Nice retest of the break and then of the 150.00. (as shown on the hourly).
These always happen when I'm not around. lol
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
james16 Chart Thread
There are many more "Ahha" moments to come. This is a big one. 
. that was a rated-R post. 
i particularly liked the BEOB on 18/5....still didnt enter though.
), I may have an initial stop of 30 to 40 pips, but if Price isn't acting like it suppose to (lol) at a given break . . . I will kill it. 
.... MAN do I feel silly...
... 
, would u? LOL
sorry, took this late. 
